Should the administration lose the Supreme Court case, it might shift to product-specific tariffs. This transition could introduce short-term market volatility, as the administration might initially propose high tariff levels as a negotiating tactic before settling on lower, more palatable rates.
Even if the Supreme Court rules against the administration, it may not change U.S. tariff levels. The executive branch has alternative legal authorities, like Section 301, that it can use to maintain the same tariffs, making a court defeat less of a market-moving event than it appears.
Because U.S. tariff levels are likely to remain stable regardless of legal challenges, the more critical factor for the long-term outlook is how companies adapt. Investors should focus on corporate responses in capital spending and supply chain adjustments rather than the tariff levels themselves.