For hardworking and talented individuals, the single most important variable for success is the project they choose. Working on a weak market opportunity or a poor founder-fit project can waste years of effort, regardless of skill.

Echoing Warren Buffett, investor Mike Schrepper advises that market dynamics—whether it's growing, shrinking, or has concentrated buyers—are the dominant factor in a company's success. Even an exceptional entrepreneur cannot overcome a fundamentally bad market, whose reputation will ultimately prevail over the founder's talent.

To determine if a startup will succeed, analyze the sequence of events. Did organic customer demand and behavior exist before the startup created its supply (product, messaging)? If the startup is trying to force motion with its supply, it's a sign of conjuring demand and a higher risk of failure.

A founder's primary job is to place the company in a large, nascent market with massive potential. It is far easier to iteratively build the right product within a great market than it is to try and iterate your way into a better market. The market choice comes first.

Hard work is an overrated success factor, ranking fourth or fifth in importance. The most critical variables are project selection (what you work on) and people selection (who you work with). Working hard in a bad market or with the wrong team yields limited returns. Choose your playing field first.

Companies typically fail from poor execution, not poor vision. Success depends on navigating a handful of pivotal 'moments of truth' over a lifetime. The most critical leadership skill isn't just making the right choice, but first identifying that a rare, critical decision point has arrived.

Delaying key hires to find the "perfect" candidate is a mistake. The best outcomes come from building a strong team around the founder early on, even if it requires calibration later. Waiting for ideal additions doesn't create better companies; early execution talent does.

Technical founders often mistakenly believe the best product wins. In reality, marketing and sales acumen are more critical for success. Many multi-million dollar companies have succeeded with products considered clunky or complex, purely through superior distribution and sales execution.

A core investment framework is to distinguish between 'pull' companies, where the market organically and virally demands the product, and 'push' companies that have to force their solution onto the market. The former indicates stronger product-market fit and a higher potential for efficient, scalable growth.