To determine if a startup will succeed, analyze the sequence of events. Did organic customer demand and behavior exist before the startup created its supply (product, messaging)? If the startup is trying to force motion with its supply, it's a sign of conjuring demand and a higher risk of failure.

Successful startups tap into organic customer needs that already exist—a 'pull' from the market. In contrast, 'conjuring demand' involves a founder trying to convince a market of a new worldview without prior evidence. This is a much harder and less reliable path to building a business.

A founder's success is more dependent on the product's intrinsic value than their operational skills. The best marketer cannot overcome the headwind of a mediocre product that doesn't deserve to be on the shelf. A great product creates a natural tailwind, making growth significantly easier and attracting opportunities.

Technically-minded founders often believe superior technology is the ultimate measure of success. The critical metamorphosis is realizing the market only rewards a great business model, measured by revenue and margins, not technical elegance. Appreciating go-to-market is essential.

Instead of searching for a market to serve, founders should solve a problem they personally experience. This "bottom-up" approach guarantees product-market fit for at least one person—the founder—providing a solid foundation to build upon and avoiding the common failure of abstract, top-down market analysis.

Using a child's toy analogy, demand is a pre-existing hole (e.g., a star shape) and your product is the block. Founders fail when they build a block and then search for a hole it fits. The real job is to first deeply understand the shape of the hole, then craft a block that fits it perfectly.