To determine if a startup will succeed, analyze the sequence of events. Did organic customer demand and behavior exist before the startup created its supply (product, messaging)? If the startup is trying to force motion with its supply, it's a sign of conjuring demand and a higher risk of failure.
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Founders who have truly 'found' demand can break free from copying other startups' playbooks. They can confidently deploy unique tactics in product or marketing that seem strange to outsiders but perfectly fit their specific, proprietary understanding of customer needs, leading to outsized success.
Successful startups tap into organic customer needs that already exist—a 'pull' from the market. In contrast, 'conjuring demand' involves a founder trying to convince a market of a new worldview without prior evidence. This is a much harder and less reliable path to building a business.
When evaluating a startup, don't accept analogous trends as proof of demand. For example, Drift's pitch deck used consumer messaging growth to justify B2B marketing software. A better approach is to find direct evidence of business users already struggling with the specific project the product addresses.
Never start a business without first validating demand by securing commitments from at least three initial clients. This strategy ensures immediate revenue and proves product-market fit from day one, avoiding the common trap of building a service that nobody wants to buy.
A business's core function is to become a system for repetition. This starts by finding one customer with strong demand, delivering a supply that fits perfectly, and documenting that success. The entire business then becomes a 'factory' optimized to find and replicate that initial case study.
Instead of searching for a market to serve, founders should solve a problem they personally experience. This "bottom-up" approach guarantees product-market fit for at least one person—the founder—providing a solid foundation to build upon and avoiding the common failure of abstract, top-down market analysis.
This reframes the fundamental goal of a startup away from a supply-side focus (building) to a demand-side focus (discovery). The market's unmet need is the force that pulls a company and its product into existence, not the other way around.
From the outside, a startup finding organic demand and one conjuring it can use identical tactics, like creating a new category or aggressive marketing. The key difference, invisible to observers, is whether these tactics respond to an existing customer pull or attempt to create one from nothing.
A core investment framework is to distinguish between 'pull' companies, where the market organically and virally demands the product, and 'push' companies that have to force their solution onto the market. The former indicates stronger product-market fit and a higher potential for efficient, scalable growth.
