Nations with high savings rates and small populations, such as Canada and Australia, face a structural challenge: their domestic markets are too small to absorb their own capital. This makes them inherently reliant on the deep, liquid U.S. markets to deploy funds from their pension and superannuation systems.
The decline in U.S. manufacturing isn't just about labor costs. A crucial, overlooked factor is the disparity in savings. While Americans consumed, nations like China saved and invested in capital goods like factories, making their labor more productive and thus more attractive for manufacturing investment.
Japan is experiencing a historic capital rotation. After decades of a bond-centric, "play not to lose" mentality that favored an aging population, the country is shifting capital into equities and other risk assets. This is driving its stock market to new highs and reflects a fundamental need to finance new growth industries.
Because Canada is operating with excess economic capacity, its new fiscal stimulus is seen as supportive but not inflationary. This provides a floor for the Canadian dollar (CAD) without forcing central bank hikes, making it a stable, low-volatility funding currency.
Promises of foreign investment to build factories in the US are not funded by new money. Foreign entities sell their large holdings of US Treasury bonds to raise the cash for the real investment, creating upward pressure on interest rates.
For global expansion, view countries as having unique attributes like players on a sports team. Outsized returns come from matching your business to a country's inherent 'raw material' strengths—such as leveraging the US for its market liquidity, or Australia for its abundant land and sun for solar projects.
A recent global fixed income sell-off was not triggered by a single U.S. event but by a cascade of disparate actions from central banks and data releases in smaller economies like Australia, New Zealand, and Japan. This decentralized shift is an unusual dynamic for markets, leading to dollar weakness.
The proliferation of investing blogs has led to intense focus on US stocks. An analysis of popular sites showed 85% of ideas were US-based, with none from Australia or Japan. This saturation creates an information arbitrage opportunity for investors exploring less-covered international markets.
A shrinking U.S. trade deficit, largely due to non-monetary gold exports, means fewer dollars are recycled back into U.S. assets. This is a significant headwind for highly-owned stocks like the Magnificent Seven, as a key source of foreign capital inflow is drying up.
Recessionary risks are higher in Canada and Europe than in the U.S. This weakness doesn't drag the U.S. down; instead, it triggers capital flight into U.S. assets for safety. This flow strengthens the dollar and reinforces the American economy, creating a cycle where U.S. strength feeds on others' fragility.
The tendency for investors to overweight their domestic stocks is a powerful global bias. The case of Sweden is an extreme example: despite its stock market representing only 1% of world GDP, Swedish citizens invested the majority of their retirement funds domestically, irrationally ignoring 99% of global investment opportunities.