The decline in U.S. manufacturing isn't just about labor costs. A crucial, overlooked factor is the disparity in savings. While Americans consumed, nations like China saved and invested in capital goods like factories, making their labor more productive and thus more attractive for manufacturing investment.
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Bringing manufacturing back to the US won't mean a return of old assembly line jobs. The real opportunity is to leapfrog to automated factories that produce sophisticated, tech-infused products. This creates a new class of higher-skill, higher-pay "blue collar plus" jobs focused on building and maintaining these advanced manufacturing systems.
From China's perspective, producing more than it needs and exporting at cutthroat prices is a strategic tool, not an economic problem. This form of industrial warfare is designed to weaken other nations' manufacturing bases, prioritizing geopolitical goals over profit.
Apple's deep reliance on China is not just about cost but a 25-year investment in a manufacturing ecosystem that can produce complex products at immense scale and quality. Replicating this unique combination in India or elsewhere is considered fanciful.
China's economic ascent began when Deng Xiaoping invited American experts to teach them about capitalism. This strategy, combined with becoming the world's manufacturing hub, allowed them to learn the system, grow strong quietly, and eventually become a dominant global power.
German automaker Volkswagen can now develop and build an electric vehicle in China for half the cost of doing so elsewhere. This shift from simple manufacturing to localized R&D—the "innovate in China for the world" model—signifies a dangerous hollowing out of core industrial capabilities and high-value jobs in Western economies.
The US won World War II largely due to its unparalleled manufacturing capacity. Today, that strategic advantage has been ceded to China. In a potential conflict, the US would face an adversary that mirrors its own historical strength, creating a critical national security vulnerability.
According to IMF data analysis, China's manufacturing surplus as a share of its GDP has surpassed 2%, exceeding the levels of Japan and Germany during their most dominant export eras. This indicates China is achieving global manufacturing dominance at a scale and speed that is historically unprecedented, fundamentally altering global trade dynamics.
China deliberately maintains an undervalued renminbi to make its exports cheaper globally. This strategy props up its manufacturing-led growth model, even though it hinders economic rebalancing and reduces the purchasing power of its own citizens.
The dramatic drop in China's Fixed Asset Investment isn't a sign of economic failure. Instead, it reflects a deliberate government-led "anti-involution" campaign to strip out industrial overcapacity. This painful but planned adjustment aims to create a more streamlined, profitable economy, fundamentally reordering its growth model away from sheer volume.
By shipping millions of jobs overseas, globalism forced American workers to compete with a much larger, cheaper international labor pool. This eliminated employers' need to compete for a finite domestic workforce, leading to wage stagnation. The proposed solution is to bring manufacturing jobs back to the U.S.
