The central idea from the UN's creation is that avoiding another total war, especially in a nuclear age, should be the ultimate priority. Engaging in transactional geopolitics and managing great power tensions without this core focus significantly increases the risk of a catastrophic global conflict.

The post-WWII global framework, including international law, was a fragile agreement primarily enforced by the US. Its erosion is leading to a "might makes right" reality where nations like Russia, China, and the US act unilaterally in their perceived self-interest, abandoning the pretense of shared rules.

The current global disarray is often misdiagnosed. The system truly at risk is the deeper, 80-year-old framework created post-WWII to prevent great power war. This is a more profound rupture than the fraying of the 30-year-old, US-led post-Cold War order.

Finland's president explains that the US can entertain a "multipolar" world of transactional deals because of its immense power. In contrast, smaller nations like Finland depend on a "multilateral," rules-based order for their security and prosperity. For them, multilateralism is not a choice but a geopolitical necessity.

The failure of Western nation-building highlights a key principle: establishing durable institutions must precede the promotion of democratic ideals. Without strong institutional frameworks for order, ideals like "freedom" can lead to chaos. America’s own success was built on inherited institutions, a luxury many developing nations lack, making the export of democracy exceptionally difficult.

We are living in a historically abnormal period of peace defined by three numbers: 80 years without a great power war, 80 years without nuclear weapon use, and only 9 nuclear states. This fragile peace, the longest since Roman times, is not a natural state and is constantly eroding, requiring active work to sustain.

China is not seeking to replace the UN with a new system. It sees the current structure, with its P5 Security Council hierarchy, as a perfect vehicle to use for its own advantage, much as the U.S. did for decades. China's goal is to become the dominant player within this existing framework.

The UN Secretary-General's influence during the Cold War wasn't just about mediating between the US and USSR. It was politically energized and supported by a powerful bloc of newly decolonized Afro-Asian states that saw the UN as a defender of their sovereignty.

The U.S. established the global order not through force, but by offering a deal: it would guarantee global security for shipping and keep its markets open, provided allies allowed the U.S. to write their security policies. This successfully aligned major world powers under U.S. command against the Soviets.