Author Robert Kaplan uses the Weimar Republic not to predict another Hitler, but as an analogy for a world in permanent crisis. Technology has shrunk the globe, creating a claustrophobic, anxious environment where no single power is in control, leading to constant paralysis rather than a clear authoritarian outcome.
The environment has become the number one security issue, manifesting as climate change. In the developing world, this drives migration from unsustainable rural areas to overburdened megacities. This massive, unchecked urbanization creates immense governance challenges and directly fuels populist movements in destination regions like Europe, making it a central factor in global instability.
The failure of Western nation-building highlights a key principle: establishing durable institutions must precede the promotion of democratic ideals. Without strong institutional frameworks for order, ideals like "freedom" can lead to chaos. America’s own success was built on inherited institutions, a luxury many developing nations lack, making the export of democracy exceptionally difficult.
Before the 2022 invasion, Russia seemed invincible after small-scale successes. However, the large-scale Ukraine war revealed a critical weakness: a complete lack of logistics. As military professionals know, logistics—maintenance, supply lines, support crews—are what enable major wars. Russia's failure in this area proved its military is not a true great power machine.
Unlike the cautious, collegial Soviet Politburo—composed of men who survived Stalin by avoiding opinions—Putin governs alone as a risk-taker. This lack of institutional checks and balances makes his actions dangerously unpredictable. The stability of Russia itself is fragile and dependent on him, making him a fundamentally different and more acute threat than his Cold War predecessors.