The post-WWII global framework, including international law, was a fragile agreement primarily enforced by the US. Its erosion is leading to a "might makes right" reality where nations like Russia, China, and the US act unilaterally in their perceived self-interest, abandoning the pretense of shared rules.

The United States' greatest strategic advantage over competitors like China is its vast ecosystem of over 50 wealthy, advanced, allied nations. China has only one treaty ally: North Korea. Weakening these alliances through punitive actions is a critical foreign policy error that erodes America's primary source of global strength.

To manage global shifts, Alexander Stubb advocates for reforming institutions like the UN Security Council to give rising nations more power. This strategy aims to secure their buy-in for a rules-based system, arguing it's more stable than building separate alliances of middle powers outside of existing frameworks.

President Stubb uses Finland's peace with the USSR as a framework. Finland lost territory but preserved its nationhood. He argues Ukraine can secure an even better outcome through a peace deal: EU membership, massive reconstruction aid, and US security guarantees—a strategic victory that transcends battlefield lines.

While a unipolar world led by one's own country is advantageous, a multipolar world with competing powers like the U.S. and China creates a dynamic tension. This competition may force more compromised global decisions, potentially leading to a more balanced, albeit more tense, international system than one dominated by a single unchallenged power.

The President of Finland's quick reversal on whether Europe can defend itself without America reveals a critical vulnerability. Despite public posturing of self-sufficiency, European security is deeply dependent on the U.S., undermining their leverage in negotiations and exposing their claims as a bluff.

With the U.S. stepping back from its traditional leadership role, European countries are creating new, direct alliances to ensure their own security. A notable example is the emerging UK-Scandinavia-Baltic-Poland axis, which signals a fundamental shift in the continent's geopolitical architecture away from a singular reliance on Washington.

Middle powers like India are not picking a side but are 'multi-aligned,' partnering with the US on tech, Russia on arms, and China on other initiatives. This creates a fluid, complex system of shifting, issue-specific coalitions rather than two fixed blocs.

Alexander Stubb argues the world order isn't breaking but evolving. His confidence stems from the protective power of international institutions like the EU, which can counter threats like tariffs and secure trade deals. This contrasts with more alarmist views that see the current instability as a complete system breakdown.