The AI race has been a prisoner's dilemma where companies spend massively, fearing competitors will pull ahead. As the cost of next-gen systems like Blackwell and Rubin becomes astronomical, the sheer economics will force a shift. Decision-making will be dominated by ROI calculations rather than the existential dread of slowing down.

Claims by AI companies that their tech won't be used for direct harm are unenforceable in military contracts. Militaries and nation-states do not follow commercial terms of service; the procurement process gives the government complete control over how technology is ultimately deployed.

OpenAI's CFO hinted at needing government guarantees for its massive data center build-out, sparking fears of an AI bubble and a "too big to fail" scenario. This reveals the immense financial risk and growing economic dependence the U.S. is developing on a few key AI labs.

Major tech companies view the AI race as a life-or-death struggle. This 'existential crisis' mindset explains their willingness to spend astronomical sums on infrastructure, prioritizing survival over short-term profitability. Their spending is a defensive moat-building exercise, not just a rational pursuit of new revenue.

Tech companies often use government and military contracts as a proving ground to refine complex technologies. This gives military personnel early access to tools, like Palantir a decade ago, long before they become mainstream in the corporate world.

SoftBank selling its NVIDIA stake to fund OpenAI's data centers shows that the cost of AI infrastructure exceeds any single funding source. To pay for it, companies are creating a "Barbenheimer" mix of financing: selling public stock, raising private venture capital, securing government backing, and issuing long-term corporate debt.

Geopolitical competition with China has forced the U.S. government to treat AI development as a national security priority, similar to the Manhattan Project. This means the massive AI CapEx buildout will be implicitly backstopped to prevent an economic downturn, effectively turning the sector into a regulated utility.

Anthropic's commitment to AI safety, exemplified by its Societal Impacts team, isn't just about ethics. It's a calculated business move to attract high-value enterprise, government, and academic clients who prioritize responsibility and predictability over potentially reckless technology.

The current market boom, largely driven by AI enthusiasm, provides critical political cover for the Trump administration. An AI market downturn would severely weaken his political standing. This creates an incentive for the administration to take extraordinary measures, like using government funds to backstop private AI companies, to prevent a collapse.