Contrary to the typical anti-war sentiment in the West, anecdotal evidence suggests that an overwhelming majority of Iranians who oppose the regime—perhaps 80% or more—would welcome outside help. They feel abandoned after the US promised support for protesters, making them receptive to foreign intervention.

An expert assesses a 70-80% probability that Cuba will cut a deal with the Trump administration, similar to Venezuela's. Lacking a foreign patron like the USSR or Chavez-era Venezuela, the Cuban regime is motivated by economic desperation to make a pragmatic deal, trading alignment for relief from US sanctions to maintain power.

Despite facing extreme economic scarcity, crippling power outages, and decades of US pressure, the Cuban government's collapse is not imminent. Analysts warn against underestimating the regime's staying power, citing its highly disciplined organization and a core of revolutionaries who have defied predictions of their demise.

Ideology and allegiance are luxuries that disappear when basic needs aren't met. When economic hardship prevents people from feeding their families, they will quickly abandon political loyalties to solve their immediate problems, which can create a powerful force for revolution.

With Cuba facing a severe economic collapse, Senator Marco Rubio is reportedly leading secret talks for a U.S. aid deal. This is a strategic move to secure a significant foreign policy win that would appeal to Florida's influential Cuban-American voters and establish his credentials for a future presidential campaign.

Beyond its widely reported economic woes, Cuba is experiencing a severe demographic crisis. A leading demographer estimates that nearly a quarter of the entire population has emigrated in just the last five to six years, representing a profound brain drain and a challenge to the nation's future stability.

Widespread emigration of young people, who are most likely to protest, has left Cuba with an aging population. This demographic shift naturally suppresses dissent and makes a popular uprising against the regime less likely, regardless of the severity of economic hardships.

Contrary to the assumption that U.S. military action is unwelcome in the region, polling reveals significant support. 53% of Latin Americans and 64% of the Venezuelan diaspora would back an intervention to remove Nicolas Maduro, highlighting a major disconnect with the skepticism of the American public.

The US strategy in Cuba may not be to oust the Castro family entirely, but to replace the current president while leaving the core power structure and even Castro relatives intact. This mirrors the approach in Venezuela, suggesting a pragmatic rather than purely ideological goal.