The current fundraising environment is the most binary in recent memory. Startups with the "right" narrative—AI-native, elite incubator pedigree, explosive growth—get funded easily. Companies with solid but non-hype metrics, like classic SaaS growers, are finding it nearly impossible to raise capital. The middle market has vanished.

Despite being founded over a decade ago, Strava is experiencing staggering growth of over 50% annually. This positions it as one of the fastest-growing consumer apps set for the public markets, with Duolingo serving as a key public comparable for its hobby-based subscription model.

Companies like Ethos going public at a valuation significantly lower than their last private round represent a strategic capitulation. It shows investors have given up hope of regaining peak valuations and prefer to "clear the logjam" by providing liquidity, even if it's at a loss.

In the current market, companies prioritize liquidity and public market access over protecting previous private valuations. A lower IPO price is no longer seen as a failure but as a necessary market correction to move forward and ensure survival.

EquipmentShare's IPO was "effortless" because it checked all the boxes for the current market: billions in revenue, high growth at that scale (47%), and profitability. This success contrasts sharply with the struggles of smaller tech companies, defining the new standard for a smooth IPO.

Despite initial excitement, the market's enthusiasm for IPOs has cooled significantly. Many newly public tech companies, including high-quality ones like Figma, are trading well below their peaks or even their IPO price, indicating the floodgates for public exits have not truly reopened.

The current IPO market is bifurcated. Investors are unenthusiastic about solid, VC-backed companies in the $5-$15B valuation range, leading to poor post-IPO performance. However, there is immense pent-up demand for a handful of mega-private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI.

Navan's IPO stumbled despite decent growth and improving margins, not because of its own fundamentals, but due to its relative unattractiveness. In the current market, public investors prefer putting capital into proven, profitable tech giants with strong AI stories over an unprofitable company at a high sales multiple.

The market for hyper-growth tech companies now exists almost exclusively in private markets, with only 5% of public software firms growing over 25%. With companies staying private for 14+ years, public markets are now for mature, slower-growing businesses.