The current fundraising environment is the most binary in recent memory. Startups with the "right" narrative—AI-native, elite incubator pedigree, explosive growth—get funded easily. Companies with solid but non-hype metrics, like classic SaaS growers, are finding it nearly impossible to raise capital. The middle market has vanished.

Venture-backed private companies represent a massive, $5 trillion market cap, exceeding half the value of the 'Magnificent Seven' public tech stocks. This scale signifies that private markets are now a mature, institutional asset class, not a small corner of finance.

The startup landscape now operates under two different sets of rules. Non-AI companies face intense scrutiny on traditional business fundamentals like profitability. In contrast, AI companies exist in a parallel reality of 'irrational exuberance,' where compelling narratives justify sky-high valuations.

Aggregate venture capital investment figures are misleading. The market is becoming bimodal: a handful of elite AI companies absorb a disproportionate share of capital, while the vast majority of other startups, including 900+ unicorns, face a tougher fundraising and exit environment.

The venture capital paradigm has inverted. Historically, private companies traded at an "illiquidity discount" to their public counterparts. Now, for elite companies, there is an "access premium" where investors pay more for private shares due to scarcity and hype. This makes staying private longer more attractive.

The current market is unique in that a handful of private AI companies like OpenAI have an outsized, direct impact on the valuations of many public companies. This makes it essential for public market investors to deeply understand private market developments to make informed decisions.

Navan's IPO stumbled despite decent growth and improving margins, not because of its own fundamentals, but due to its relative unattractiveness. In the current market, public investors prefer putting capital into proven, profitable tech giants with strong AI stories over an unprofitable company at a high sales multiple.

A theory posits that SpaceX's massive potential IPO is a "spite IPO" by Elon Musk. By raising tens of billions in the public market, he could "suck the oxygen out of the room," making it significantly harder for capital-intensive AI competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic to secure their own large funding rounds.

The successful $6.3B IPO of medical supply company Medline, not a tech darling, is the real sign that the IPO market is reopening. Its success proves deep, stable investor demand exists beyond venture-backed hype, signaling that the window is now truly open for giants like SpaceX and Anthropic to go public.