EquipmentShare's IPO was "effortless" because it checked all the boxes for the current market: billions in revenue, high growth at that scale (47%), and profitability. This success contrasts sharply with the struggles of smaller tech companies, defining the new standard for a smooth IPO.
Contrary to the prevailing wisdom of staying private as long as possible, VC Keith Rabois counsels his portfolio companies to pursue an IPO once they hit ~$50 million in predictable revenue. He believes the benefits of being public outweigh the costs much earlier than most founders think.
In the current market, companies prioritize liquidity and public market access over protecting previous private valuations. A lower IPO price is no longer seen as a failure but as a necessary market correction to move forward and ensure survival.
Venture capitalist Bruce Booth explains that bankers, lawyers, audit firms, and VCs all have strong financial incentives for a company to go public. This creates systemic pressure that may not align with the company's best long-term interests.
Despite initial excitement, the market's enthusiasm for IPOs has cooled significantly. Many newly public tech companies, including high-quality ones like Figma, are trading well below their peaks or even their IPO price, indicating the floodgates for public exits have not truly reopened.
The current IPO market is bifurcated. Investors are unenthusiastic about solid, VC-backed companies in the $5-$15B valuation range, leading to poor post-IPO performance. However, there is immense pent-up demand for a handful of mega-private companies like SpaceX and OpenAI.
Navan's IPO stumbled despite decent growth and improving margins, not because of its own fundamentals, but due to its relative unattractiveness. In the current market, public investors prefer putting capital into proven, profitable tech giants with strong AI stories over an unprofitable company at a high sales multiple.
An IPO is not a final exit but the start of a public "marriage" with new responsibilities. This mindset shifts focus from the event itself to rigorously preparing the company for the long-term demands of public markets, for instance through simulated earnings calls and disciplined share allocation to long-term investors.
The process of going public establishes a clear market price for a company, an act of 'price discovery.' This transparency, combined with the discipline of quarterly reporting, can make a company a more attractive and straightforward acquisition target, as seen with Slack.
The market for hyper-growth tech companies now exists almost exclusively in private markets, with only 5% of public software firms growing over 25%. With companies staying private for 14+ years, public markets are now for mature, slower-growing businesses.
The successful $6.3B IPO of medical supply company Medline, not a tech darling, is the real sign that the IPO market is reopening. Its success proves deep, stable investor demand exists beyond venture-backed hype, signaling that the window is now truly open for giants like SpaceX and Anthropic to go public.