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Despite being marketed as diversifiers, the broad category of liquid alternative products has largely failed. On average, they exhibit a high correlation to equities (around 0.8) while delivering poor returns (2-3% annually), effectively acting as expensive, underperforming equity proxies rather than true diversifiers.
An LP's diversification strategy across different venture funds is undermined when every fund converges on a single theme like AI. This creates a highly correlated portfolio, concentrating systemic risk rather than spreading it. The traditional diversification benefits of investing across multiple managers, stages, and geographies are nullified.
The traditional asset management industry's product development is structurally flawed. Firms often launch numerous funds and market only the one that performs well, a "spaghetti cannon" approach. Products are designed by what a "car salesman" thinks can be sold, prioritizing upfront commissions over sound investment opportunities.
While still profitable, FX carry trades have become more cyclical and less of a diversifier. They now exhibit a high correlation (~0.5 beta) with the S&P 500 and offer significantly lower yields (7% vs. 11-12% previously), increasing their risk profile in a potential market downturn.
Contrary to marketing narratives, Acadian Asset Management's analysis finds no evidence that private credit generates higher risk-adjusted returns than public credit. Analysis of private issuers within public indices shows they are simply riskier firms with higher yields to compensate, not a source of alpha.
Investors' equity allocations are high, not necessarily from new purchases, but from strong market performance. This passive 'drift' creates a significant, often overlooked, concentration risk. This means many portfolios are more exposed to an equity drawdown than their owners may realize, necessitating a review of diversification strategies.
Private equity's low reported correlation with public markets is largely an illusion created by smoothed, infrequent valuations ("volatility laundering"). The effect is exaggerated when institutions report private asset returns with a one-quarter lag, creating "accounting diversification" instead of real risk reduction.
The goal of diversification is to hold assets that behave differently. By design, some part of your portfolio will likely be underperforming at all times. Accepting this discomfort is a key feature of a well-constructed portfolio, not a bug to be fixed.
The sign of a working diversification strategy is having something in your portfolio that you're unhappy with. Chasing winners by selling the laggard is a common mistake that leads to buying high and selling low. The discomfort of holding an underperformer is proof the strategy is functioning as intended, not that it's failing.
Instead of allocating a large sum to a low-volatility alternative, investors should allocate a smaller amount to a higher-volatility version of the same strategy. This provides the same dollar exposure to the alpha source but is more capital-efficient, freeing up capital for other uses and reducing manager risk.
Contrary to expectations, drawdowns in managed futures frequently occur when equity markets are performing well. The strategy's recovery periods, however, often coincide with equity market turbulence, highlighting its counter-cyclical nature and making it behaviorally difficult to hold.