While US actions in Latin America may be a direct loss for Russia and China's regional allies, they create a global precedent. A world where great powers feel free to act forcefully in their immediate surroundings is precisely the international order that Russia and China want to establish in Eastern Europe and the Western Pacific.
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The post-WWII global framework, including international law, was a fragile agreement primarily enforced by the US. Its erosion is leading to a "might makes right" reality where nations like Russia, China, and the US act unilaterally in their perceived self-interest, abandoning the pretense of shared rules.
The effort to acquire Greenland is more than a hemispheric strategy; it signals the US may be joining Russia and China in seeking to coercively redraw borders. This shift from all three major powers challenges the post-1945 international order that has largely prohibited forcible conquest, a change not seen since the 1930s.
Trump’s national security strategy subtly resurrected the 'Roosevelt Corollary' of 1904. This doctrine extends the Monroe Doctrine by asserting the U.S. right to proactively change governments it dislikes in the Western Hemisphere, signaling a return to a more interventionist and sphere-of-influence-based foreign policy.
The US invasion of Venezuela isn't for oil or to stop drugs, but to counter China's strategic influence via its Belt and Road Initiative. This reasserts the Monroe Doctrine—preventing rival footholds in its hemisphere—in a new Cold War context.
Beijing interprets America's focus on regions like Latin America or the Middle East with a 'shoulder shrug.' They see these distractions as beneficial, giving them more freedom to aggressively pursue their own interests and push allies in the Indo-Pacific without US interference.
Marco Rubio articulated Trump's foreign policy as a 'spheres of influence' model, a modern Monroe Doctrine. This framework cedes global leadership, envisioning a world where the U.S. controls the West, Russia controls its territory and Europe, and China controls Asia. This marks a fundamental shift from America's post-WWII role as a global superpower to a regional one.
The conflict is not primarily about oil or drugs, but a strategic move to reassert U.S. dominance in the Western Hemisphere. As China solidifies its influence in the East, the U.S. is 'drawing a line' to counter China's partnerships (like with Venezuela) in its own sphere of influence.
The US military operation in Venezuela is interpreted as a display of global military dominance aimed at China and Russia. This action suggests a strategic pivot towards becoming a global empire rather than retreating to a regional, isolationist Monroe Doctrine.
The Trump administration's renewed focus on Latin America, as detailed in its national security strategy, could inadvertently signal a reduced US geopolitical focus on China's sphere of influence. Beijing may interpret this as an opportunity to play the long game on Taiwan, avoiding immediate retaliation over Venezuela.
By prioritizing resource acquisition in its own sphere of influence (Venezuela), the US has effectively signaled it cannot or will not defend Taiwan. This action, whether an explicit deal or not, acts as a 'handshake,' giving China the green light to pursue its own regional strategic objectives.
