A deal in the CRM is merely "pipeline qualified." To be "forecast qualified," it must meet stricter criteria, like multi-stakeholder buy-in from the economic buyer. Leaders must enforce this distinction to stop reps from confusing pipeline activity with committed deals, leading to disastrous forecast misses.
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Forecasting accuracy fails when based on a seller's checklist of actions like "proposal sent." Instead, define sales stages by concrete buyer actions, like the number of stakeholders involved or if they've reviewed a proposal. This provides a more realistic view of a deal's health.
Best Case: Qualified deal, but the timeline is fuzzy. Most Likely: The buyer has explicitly confirmed they will make a decision within your timeline. Commit: The buyer is actively taking steps (e.g., paperwork, security review) to fulfill that confirmed timeline.
Because managers don't trust CRM data, they spend their time chasing reps with active deals to secure the forecast. This focus on closing existing business means ramping reps are neglected, which is a primary driver for ramp times increasing from five to nine months and high attrition.
Instead of a single forecast category, assess each deal's risk (Green, Yellow, Orange, Red) across each of the five agreement stages (Problem, Priority, etc.). This creates a highly accurate, data-driven forecast by pinpointing the exact source of risk within a deal's progression.
Many sales leaders run pipeline reviews solely to extract information for their forecast. The meeting's primary purpose should be to help the rep understand what to do next. Effective coaching leads to closed deals, which in turn creates an accurate forecast naturally.
Traditional CRM stages reflect seller activities (e.g., demoed, proposal sent). The ADVANCED framework (Acknowledge problem, Documented issue, Validated by team, etc.) tracks the buyer's journey and commitment level. This provides a more accurate assessment of a deal's true progress and likelihood to close.
Salespeople often keep dead deals in their pipeline out of hope. To get realistic, ask a simple question for each opportunity: "If I had to bet my own money on this closing by year-end, would I?" If the answer is no, immediately remove it from the active pipeline and replace it.
Stop using early deal stages to manage unqualified leads, as this creates fuzzy reporting. Implementing HubSpot's dedicated Lead Object creates a clean separation between the lead qualification process and the deal closing process. This clarifies metrics and improves BDR workflow.
A deal forecast is weak if the rep can't articulate the champion's personal motivation. Managers should push beyond "they like the product" and ask what's in it for the individual (e.g., a promotion, solving a personal pain point). This uncovers true deal commitment.
Carles Reina instructs his team to forecast deals at the lowest possible value (e.g., forecast a potential $500k deal at $24k). This forces reps to build a much larger pipeline to meet their quotas and prevents inflated expectations with investors, creating a culture of under-promising and over-delivering.
