Forecasting accuracy fails when based on a seller's checklist of actions like "proposal sent." Instead, define sales stages by concrete buyer actions, like the number of stakeholders involved or if they've reviewed a proposal. This provides a more realistic view of a deal's health.
Related Insights
Traditional funnels jump from a marketing signal (like an MQL) to an opportunity, creating a blind spot. They miss the 'Engagement' period of initial interaction and the 'Prospecting' phase of active sales pursuit. Ignoring these stages makes it impossible to diagnose performance issues or identify improvement levers.
Best Case: Qualified deal, but the timeline is fuzzy. Most Likely: The buyer has explicitly confirmed they will make a decision within your timeline. Commit: The buyer is actively taking steps (e.g., paperwork, security review) to fulfill that confirmed timeline.
Instead of a single forecast category, assess each deal's risk (Green, Yellow, Orange, Red) across each of the five agreement stages (Problem, Priority, etc.). This creates a highly accurate, data-driven forecast by pinpointing the exact source of risk within a deal's progression.
Many sales leaders run pipeline reviews solely to extract information for their forecast. The meeting's primary purpose should be to help the rep understand what to do next. Effective coaching leads to closed deals, which in turn creates an accurate forecast naturally.
Two clear red flags indicate a deal is at risk: relying on a single contact and having a close date not tied to a specific buyer deadline. To de-risk a deal, sales reps must engage multiple stakeholders (multi-threading) and anchor the timeline to the buyer's critical business needs.
In B2B sales with multiple decision-makers, tracking individual MQLs is a "lazy metric" that misrepresents buying intent. Success depends on identifying and engaging the entire buying group. Marketing's goal should be to qualify the group, not just a single lead.
To avoid stalled deals, continuously test the prospect's engagement. If a stakeholder consistently fails to meet small commitments—like providing requested information on time—it is a strong indicator that the deal is not a priority for them and is at high risk of stalling.
Move beyond measuring only conversations and booked meetings. A key metric for sales leaders should be the number of contact status changes an SDR makes daily. This KPI quantifies progress in the "gray area," showing that conversations are leading to concrete next steps, even if they aren't immediate meetings.
A deal forecast is weak if the rep can't articulate the champion's personal motivation. Managers should push beyond "they like the product" and ask what's in it for the individual (e.g., a promotion, solving a personal pain point). This uncovers true deal commitment.
Don't measure deal progress by the number of meetings held. Instead, define specific exit criteria for each sales stage. A deal only moves forward when the prospect meets these criteria, which can happen with or without a live meeting. This reframes velocity around outcomes, not activities.
