Offering daily liquidity while pursuing a multi-year investment strategy creates a dangerous duration mismatch. When investors inevitably demand their cash during a downturn, the long-term thesis is shattered, forcing fire sales and destroying value. A fund's liquidity terms must align with its investment horizon.
A hybrid evergreen fundraising model, combining periodic standard funds with continuous managed accounts, eliminates fundraising cliffs. This allows a firm to deploy capital counter-cyclically, buying when assets are on sale, rather than being forced to deploy or liquidate based on an artificial timeline.
Limited Partners should resist pressuring VCs for early exits to lock in DPI. The best companies compound value at incredible rates, making it optimal to hold winners. Instead, LPs should manage portfolio duration and liquidity by building a balanced portfolio of early-stage, growth, and secondary fund investments.
Contrary to popular belief, the market may be getting less efficient. The dominance of indexing, quant funds, and multi-manager pods—all with short time horizons—creates dislocations. This leaves opportunities for long-term investors to buy valuable assets that are neglected because their path to value creation is uncertain.
The primary investment risk is permanent loss, not price fluctuation. Volatility becomes a tangible risk only due to external factors like an investor's psychology, career pressures, or institutional needs (e.g., daily fund withdrawals, university budget draws).
Institutions must manage four primary risks: failing to meet liabilities (shortfall), path-of-return volatility (drawdown), access to capital (liquidity), and the reputational risk of underperforming peers, which Matt Bank calls “embarrassment risk.” This last one is often the most delicate and hard to quantify.
Success in late-stage venture resembles trading more than traditional investing—it's about buying and selling on momentum. However, this "new public market" has a critical flaw: while liquidity exists on the way up, it vanishes on the downside, making it impossible to execute a true trading strategy when a correction occurs.
A skilled investor avoided a winning stock because his Limited Partner (LP) base wouldn't tolerate the potential drawdown. This shows that even with strong conviction, a fund's structure and client base can dictate its investment universe, creating opportunities for those with more patient or permanent capital.
The typical 'buy and hold forever' strategy is riskier than perceived because the median lifespan of a public company is just a decade. This high corporate mortality rate, driven by M&A and failure, underscores the need for investors to regularly reassess holdings rather than assume longevity.
Simply "thinking long-term" is not enough. A genuine long-term approach requires three aligned components: 1) a long-term perspective, 2) an investment structure (like an open-ended fund) that doesn't force short-term decisions, and 3) a clear understanding of what "long-term" means (10 years vs. 50 years).
In frothy markets with multi-billion dollar valuations, a key learned behavior from 2021 is for VCs to sell 10-20% of their stake during a large funding round. This provides early liquidity and distributions (DPI) to LPs, who are grateful for the cash back, and de-risks the fund's position.