Contrary to the belief that indexing creates market inefficiencies, Michael Mauboussin argues the opposite. Indexing removes the weakest, 'closet indexing' players from the active pool, increasing the average skill level of the remaining competition and making it harder to find an edge.
Dividends do not inherently increase an investor's capital, as a dividend payment reduces the stock's price by the same amount. Total shareholder return is only achieved if the dividend is fully reinvested without taxes or fees; otherwise, only price appreciation grows the initial investment.
Michael Mauboussin's BIN framework reveals that inconsistent judgments ('noise') are often a larger source of forecasting errors than personal biases or insufficient information. Reducing this variability through methods like combining independent judgments is a key to better decision-making.
The typical 'buy and hold forever' strategy is riskier than perceived because the median lifespan of a public company is just a decade. This high corporate mortality rate, driven by M&A and failure, underscores the need for investors to regularly reassess holdings rather than assume longevity.
Companies reporting losses under GAAP rules aren't always bad investments. If losses stem from expensing intangible investments like R&D, they are 'GAP losers' with strong economics. Historically, this cohort has delivered higher returns than both consistently profitable companies and 'real losers'.
Michael Mauboussin argues the market is inherently long-term oriented. For major Dow Jones stocks, nearly 90% of their equity value is derived from expected cash flows beyond the next five years, debunking the common narrative of market short-sightedness and a focus on quarterly results.
Traditional valuation multiples are increasingly misleading because GAAP rules expense intangible investments (R&D, brand building) rather than capitalizing them. For a company like Microsoft, properly capitalizing these investments can drop its P/E ratio from 35 to 30, revealing a more attractive valuation.