[REPLAY] Matt Bank - "GEMs" of Risk, Asset Allocation, and Manager Selection (EP.419)

To elicit candid answers from fund managers, the most effective technique is not the question itself but the silence that follows. Resisting the psychological urge to fill the space forces the manager to sit with the question, often leading to less rehearsed and more truthful responses.

The majority of venture capital funds fail to return capital, with a 60% loss-making base rate. This highlights that VC is a power-law-driven asset class. The key to success is not picking consistently good funds, but ensuring access to the tiny fraction of funds that generate extraordinary, outlier returns.

Institutions must manage four primary risks: failing to meet liabilities (shortfall), path-of-return volatility (drawdown), access to capital (liquidity), and the reputational risk of underperforming peers, which Matt Bank calls “embarrassment risk.” This last one is often the most delicate and hard to quantify.

Backing independent sponsors on a deal-by-deal basis is more than an investment strategy; it is an extended due diligence process. This approach provides deep, real-time insights into a manager's problem-solving skills under pressure, offering transparency that is impossible to achieve before a Fund I commitment.

In a world of highly skilled money managers, absolute skill becomes table stakes and luck plays a larger role in outcomes. According to Michael Mauboussin's "paradox of skill," an allocator's job is to identify managers whose *relative* skill—a specific, durable edge—still dominates results.

The best investment opportunities are often with managers who have strong demand and don't need any single LP's capital. The allocator's core challenge is proving their value to gain access. Conversely, managers who are too eager to negotiate on terms may be a negative signal of quality or demand.

During due diligence, it's crucial to look beyond returns. Top allocators analyze a manager's decision-making process, not just the outcome. They penalize managers who were “right for the wrong reasons” (luck) and give credit to those who were “wrong for the right reasons” (good process, bad luck).

The Outsourced CIO (OCIO) model has evolved through three phases. After a governance-focused start (Phase 1) and a period where simple beta portfolios thrived (Phase 2), the current environment of lower expected returns and higher inflation (Phase 3) demands a true "alpha engine." Execution quality and customization are now the key differentiators.