Ken Griffin is skeptical of AI's role in long-term investing. He argues that since AI models are trained on historical data, they excel at static problems. However, investing requires predicting a future that may not resemble the past—a dynamic, forward-looking task where these models inherently struggle.
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A 2022 study by the Forecasting Research Institute has been reviewed, revealing that top forecasters and AI experts significantly underestimated AI advancements. They assigned single-digit odds to breakthroughs that occurred within two years, proving we are consistently behind the curve in our predictions.
History shows that transformative innovations like airlines, vaccines, and PCs, while beneficial to society, often fail to create sustained, concentrated shareholder value as they become commoditized. This suggests the massive valuations in AI may be misplaced, with the technology's benefits accruing more to users than investors in the long run.
Current AI models resemble a student who grinds 10,000 hours on a narrow task. They achieve superhuman performance on benchmarks but lack the broad, adaptable intelligence of someone with less specific training but better general reasoning. This explains the gap between eval scores and real-world utility.
We are building AI, a fundamentally stochastic and fuzzy system, on top of highly precise and deterministic digital computers. Unconventional AI founder Naveen Rao argues this is a profound mismatch. The goal is to build a new computing substrate—analog circuits—that is isomorphic to the nature of intelligence itself.
In the current AI landscape, knowledge and assumptions become obsolete within months, not years. This rapid pace of evolution creates significant stress, as investors and founders must constantly re-educate themselves to make informed decisions. Relying on past knowledge is a quick path to failure.
Unlike deterministic SaaS software that works consistently, AI is probabilistic and doesn't work perfectly out of the box. Achieving 'human-grade' performance (e.g., 99.9% reliability) requires continuous tuning and expert guidance, countering the hype that AI is an immediate, hands-off solution.
Moving from science to investing requires a critical mindset shift. Science seeks objective, repeatable truths, while investing involves making judgments about an unknowable future. Successful investors must use quantitative models as guides for judgment, not as sources of definitive answers.
The most fundamental challenge in AI today is not scale or architecture, but the fact that models generalize dramatically worse than humans. Solving this sample efficiency and robustness problem is the true key to unlocking the next level of AI capabilities and real-world impact.
A critical weakness of current AI models is their inefficient learning process. They require exponentially more experience—sometimes 100,000 times more data than a human encounters in a lifetime—to acquire their skills. This highlights a key difference from human cognition and a major hurdle for developing more advanced, human-like AI.
The most significant recent AI advance is models' ability to use chain-of-thought reasoning, not just retrieve data. However, most business users are unaware of this 'deep research' capability and continue using AI as a simple search tool, missing its transformative potential for complex problem-solving.
