The most immediate AI milestone is not singularity, but "Economic AGI," where AI can perform most virtual knowledge work better than humans. This threshold, predicted to arrive within 12-18 months, will trigger massive societal and economic shifts long before a "Terminator"-style superintelligence becomes a reality.

Unlike traditional engineering, breakthroughs in foundational AI research often feel binary. A model can be completely broken until a handful of key insights are discovered, at which point it suddenly works. This "all or nothing" dynamic makes it impossible to predict timelines, as you don't know if a solution is a week or two years away.

Julian Schrittwieser, a key researcher from Anthropic and formerly Google DeepMind, forecasts that extrapolating current AI progress suggests models will achieve full-day autonomy and match human experts across many industries by mid-2026. This timeline is much shorter than many anticipate.

Silicon Valley insiders, including former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, believe AI capable of improving itself without human instruction is just 2-4 years away. This shift in focus from the abstract concept of superintelligence to a specific research goal signals an imminent acceleration in AI capabilities and associated risks.

OpenAI's new GDPVal framework evaluates AI on real-world knowledge work. It found frontier models produce work rated equal to or better than human experts nearly 50% of the time, while being 100 times faster and cheaper. This provides a direct measure of impending economic transformation.

In the current AI landscape, knowledge and assumptions become obsolete within months, not years. This rapid pace of evolution creates significant stress, as investors and founders must constantly re-educate themselves to make informed decisions. Relying on past knowledge is a quick path to failure.

AI progress was expected to stall in 2024-2025 due to hardware limitations on pre-training scaling laws. However, breakthroughs in post-training techniques like reasoning and test-time compute provided a new vector for improvement, bridging the gap until next-generation chips like NVIDIA's Blackwell arrived.

Kevin Rose argues against forming fixed opinions on AI capabilities. The technology leapfrogs every 4-8 weeks, meaning a developer who found AI coding assistants "horrible" three months ago is judging a tool that is now 3-4 times better. One must continuously re-evaluate AI tools to stay current.

Many technical leaders initially dismissed generative AI for its failures on simple logical tasks. However, its rapid, tangible improvement over a short period forces a re-evaluation and a crucial mindset shift towards adoption to avoid being left behind.