Recent antitrust lawsuits against Meta and Google resulted in minimal consequences ("nothing burgers"), signaling a more permissive regulatory environment. Combined with anticipated economic stimulus, this creates ideal conditions for a wave of large-scale M&A ($25B-$250B) among major tech companies in the coming year.

A surge in IPOs and M&A isn't driven by pro-business policies, but by a reduction in policy uncertainty. With a clearer, albeit more interventionist, landscape, companies have the confidence to execute major strategic plans they had previously postponed.

Contrary to a slow market narrative, deal flow has sharply accelerated. Blackstone's Michael Zwadsky revealed that August 2024 was the firm's biggest investment committee month in three years, and the summer was the third most active for M&A since 2008, signaling a real inflection point for transactions.

Madrona Ventures anticipates a rise in private-to-private mergers as a key trend for 2026. With questions about the long-term durability of even fast-growing private AI companies, consolidation is seen as a primary way for winners to emerge and build more defensible businesses in a volatile market.

David Solomon notes a split in CEO sentiment. While they are constructive on the economic and regulatory environment, they are concerned by inconsistent, "shotgun" policy approaches and political "noise." This uncertainty makes them more cautious, especially outside the U.S., despite underlying business optimism.

Despite geopolitical risk and economic uncertainty, M&A is surging because companies are executing on long-term (20-30 year) strategic repositioning plans conceived post-COVID. When capital markets open, even briefly, companies are quick to act on these dormant, high-conviction plans, ignoring near-term volatility.

A rare alignment of accommodative M&A regulations in both the U.S. and Europe is creating a sense of urgency for companies. This "permissive window" may not last, compelling businesses to pursue transactions now rather than later.

David Solomon dismisses the "job apocalypse" theory. For Goldman Sachs, AI-driven efficiency creates capacity. This freed-up capacity will be reinvested into growth initiatives that were previously constrained, which he believes will ultimately drive more job creation over time, not less.

A surge in capital expenditure indicates rising corporate confidence and, more importantly, a strategic pivot. Companies are moving away from passive stock repurchases, showing an urgency to pursue active growth through investments and acquisitions.