David Solomon notes a split in CEO sentiment. While they are constructive on the economic and regulatory environment, they are concerned by inconsistent, "shotgun" policy approaches and political "noise." This uncertainty makes them more cautious, especially outside the U.S., despite underlying business optimism.
David Solomon dismisses the "job apocalypse" theory. For Goldman Sachs, AI-driven efficiency creates capacity. This freed-up capacity will be reinvested into growth initiatives that were previously constrained, which he believes will ultimately drive more job creation over time, not less.
David Solomon expresses extreme optimism for dealmaking, citing a robust backlog and active client dialogues. Barring a major exogenous shock, he anticipates 2026 could surpass previous records for M&A activity, driven by a more constructive regulatory environment and strong CEO confidence.
While bullish on AI's long-term disruptive power, David Solomon flags a near-term risk. The market may realize that deploying AI technology within large enterprises is harder and slower than currently expected. This could lead to a "recalibration" in valuations and sentiment during the year.
The Goldman Sachs CEO differentiates between two types of AI adoption. Giving employees AI tools to make them more productive is relatively easy. The much harder, yet more impactful, challenge is fundamentally re-engineering long-standing, complex processes like customer onboarding from the ground up.
Goldman's CEO argues the U.S. growth lead is not temporary. It's fueled by a superior tech innovation ecosystem and more efficient capital formation processes. He contrasts the US's ~$30T economy growing at 2% with Europe's ~$20T economy growing under 1%, predicting the gap will widen.