U.S. foreign policy has moved away from leading the free world towards mimicking the strongman, autocratic behaviors of adversaries. By abandoning democratic allies and adopting aggressive, unilateral actions, the U.S. is now reacting to and copying other global powers rather than setting the international agenda.

Unlike predecessors who framed foreign policy within a broader worldview (e.g., democracy promotion), Trump's approach is purely transactional and theatrical. It lacks a moral or ideological justification, instead focusing on demanding tribute, like oil from Venezuela, to appeal to a nationalist base without building a durable governing coalition.

By dismantling the post-WWII global order, the Trump administration forces allies to realign with China. As the U.S. retreats from global partnerships, China is positioned to dominate key industries like renewable energy, making the 21st century "the China century" by default as the world moves on without America.

The true danger of 'predatory hegemony' is not an immediate, catastrophic failure but a gradual degradation of American power, wealth, and influence. This slow fraying of alliances and trust is harder to perceive in the short term but risks leaving the US in a permanently weakened global position over time.

Despite claims of being 'realist,' Trump's foreign policy is fundamentally anti-realist. By alienating allies, cutting R&D, and acting imprudently, it undermines the very sources of long-term American power—partnerships and technological superiority—that a true realist would seek to preserve.

Alexander Stubb posits that recent US foreign policy is uniquely driven by a specific "MAGA" ideology that is fundamentally anti-international order and condescending towards liberal Europe. Understanding this ideological root, beyond just transactional policy, is crucial for allies navigating the relationship with Washington.

Stephen Walt defines Trump's foreign policy as 'predatory hegemony,' a unique strategy where a dominant power uses its leverage to extract concessions and tribute from everyone, including long-standing allies. This departs from traditional great power politics, which is typically predatory only toward rivals.

The administration's aggressive, unilateral actions are pushing European nations toward strategic autonomy rather than cooperation. This alienates key partners and fundamentally undermines the 'Allied Scale' strategy of building a collective economic bloc to counter adversaries like China.

The latest U.S. National Security Strategy drops confrontational rhetoric about China as an ideological threat, instead framing the relationship around economic rivalry and rebalancing. This shift prioritizes tangible deals over promoting American values globally, marking a departure from Reagan-era foreign policy.