Wilkinson argues that the traditional moat for software—the high cost and difficulty of hiring programmers—has vanished. He compares it to a machine that makes perfect pizza cheaply: consumer quality rises, but business margins plummet. Lasting value must now come from other sources like brand or distribution.
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As AI makes it easy to generate 'good enough' software, a functional product is no longer a moat. The new advantage is creating an experience so delightful that users prefer it over a custom-built alternative. This makes design the primary driver of value, setting premium software apart from the infinitely generated.
In the fast-evolving AI space, traditional moats are less relevant. The new defensibility comes from momentum—a combination of rapid product shipment velocity and effective distribution. Teams that can build and distribute faster than competitors will win, as the underlying technology layer is constantly shifting.
As AI and better tools commoditize software creation, traditional technology moats are shrinking. The new defensible advantages are forms of liquidity: aggregated data, marketplace activity, or social interactions. These network effects are harder for competitors to replicate than code or features.
The long-held belief that a complex codebase provides a durable competitive advantage is becoming obsolete due to AI. As software becomes easier to replicate, defensibility shifts away from the technology itself and back toward classic business moats like network effects, brand reputation, and deep industry integration.
As AI and no-code tools make software easier to build, technological advantage is no longer a defensible moat. The most successful companies now win through unique distribution advantages, such as founder-led content or deep community building. Go-to-market strategy has surpassed product as the key differentiator.
AI is making core software functionality nearly free, creating an existential crisis for traditional SaaS companies. The old model of 90%+ gross margins is disappearing. The future will be dominated by a few large AI players with lower margins, alongside a strategic shift towards monetizing high-value services.
AI makes the technical 'doing' of business, like coding, accessible to everyone. The durable competitive edge is no longer the ability to build a product, but the ability to reach and acquire customers. Audience and distribution channels are the new defensible assets.
For product categories where AI can easily replicate the core technology (like online file converters or headshot generators), defensibility shifts away from tech. The business becomes a pure play on marketing, distribution, and brand, much like succeeding with a new brand of canned water.
Advanced AI tools have made writing software trivially easy, erasing the traditional moat of technical execution. The new differentiators for businesses are non-technical assets like brand trust, distribution networks, and community, as the software itself has become instantly replicable.
In a world where AI makes software cheap or free, the primary value shifts to specialized human expertise. Companies can monetize by using their software as a low-cost distribution channel to sell high-margin, high-ticket services that customers cannot easily replicate, like specialized security analysis.