If a nuclear state like Russia successfully invades a non-nuclear state using nuclear blackmail, it sends a clear message to middle powers. They will conclude that acquiring nuclear weapons is the only reliable way to deter aggression from larger, nuclear-armed neighbors, making the world far more dangerous.
Historian Timothy Snyder argues that for the Trump administration, the fall of the Soviet Union is not a warning but an aspirational model. They see it as a positive example of how aspiring oligarchs can exploit a collapsing state to "come crashing in and steal all the resources" for personal enrichment.
Professor Timothy Snyder asserts that the vast quantity of advanced munitions the U.S. expended in the first two weeks of the Iran war, with no clear strategic gain, would have been sufficient for Ukraine to achieve victory against Russia. This represents a catastrophic misallocation of critical military resources.
While Ukraine successfully holds the military front line, US policy denying crucial missile defense has created a critical vulnerability. This allows Russia to wage a continuous and devastating economic war by destroying Ukrainian factories, infrastructure, and livelihoods from the air with little resistance.
The enduring political lesson from 9/11 is that in a crisis, the American public grants the government broad new powers. Snyder warns this Pavlovian response could be exploited by an administration willing to manufacture a fake terrorist attack to consolidate power, a tactic used by authoritarians like Putin and Orbán.
Contrary to the stereotype of being mired in bureaucracy, the European Union has acted swiftly and effectively to support Ukraine. In contrast, the U.S. response has been hampered by its own bureaucracy and political "ill will," subverting common narratives about their respective institutional effectiveness.
The prolonged conflict serves as a real-world R&D lab for modern warfare. While Ukraine innovates in areas like drone usage, Russia quickly copies these methods at scale. This is upskilling the Russian military, creating a more formidable future threat for NATO and the U.S.
Envoys like Kushner and Witkoff are unable to act as effective mediators because they operate on a transactional, oligarchic model of power. They cannot articulate national interests, instead relating to figures like Putin as fellow oligarchs, which fundamentally misunderstands the nature of international relations.