The Thucydides Trap, where a rising power challenges an established one, is often misinterpreted. Historian Graham Allison's data shows that in over half the historical cases, it's the challenging power, not the established one, that is ultimately destroyed in the conflict.
China is structurally incapable of displacing the U.S. due to a trio of critical weaknesses: Xi Jinping's consolidation of power has paralyzed decision-making, geography boxes in its military, and an irreversible demographic crisis signals imminent collapse.
Contrary to its national narrative, a unified China is a rare exception. Its 3,000-year history is dominated by 29 civilizational collapses where the central state fails, warlords rise, and the population plummets. Unity is not its natural state.
China’s geography creates three distinct population centers (North, Shanghai, South). These regions have separate identities and have often integrated more with global trade than with each other, making political unity a fragile, imposed state rather than an organic one.
Current American political turmoil is not about personalities but the structural breakdown of both major parties. Each has lost key voter factions, creating a chaotic period where neither can truly win. This instability will persist until a new political alignment emerges.
The current chaos of online misinformation isn't just a tech outcome; it was legally enabled. The 1996 Telecommunications Act shielded both users and platforms from liability, effectively removing the libel laws that governed traditional media and creating a legal free-for-all.
Contrary to fears of non-assimilation, American culture powerfully absorbs immigrant groups. Spanish is the fastest-disappearing language in the US, with second-generation Mexican Americans rarely being fluent. This showcases a rapid integration process not seen in places like Canada or Europe.
Since China's leadership is incapable of good-faith negotiation and the state is on a path to collapse, the U.S. must prepare for its absence. This requires a strategic shift to industrial policy to onshore manufacturing and create resilient supply chains, even if it's not purely capitalistic.
Americans misinterpret European politics by projecting their definition of race. In Europe, 'race' is tied to nationality and culture. This leads to a centrist, deep-seated bias against all outsiders, making Europe one of the most anti-immigration places in the world, even among its political left.
China's economic rise was enabled by the post-WWII globalized structure the U.S. created. The U.S. Navy's protection of sea lanes gave China unprecedented coastal security and access to global markets, making its modern form possible. Without it, China would likely collapse.