China is structurally incapable of displacing the U.S. due to a trio of critical weaknesses: Xi Jinping's consolidation of power has paralyzed decision-making, geography boxes in its military, and an irreversible demographic crisis signals imminent collapse.
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Since China's leadership is incapable of good-faith negotiation and the state is on a path to collapse, the U.S. must prepare for its absence. This requires a strategic shift to industrial policy to onshore manufacturing and create resilient supply chains, even if it's not purely capitalistic.
The idea of China's economy inevitably surpassing the U.S. is no longer plausible. China peaked at 18.5% of global GDP in 2021 and has since declined. The systemic economic competition with the U.S. is "basically over."
The unprecedented removal of top generals, including longtime confidants, suggests Xi feels his grip on the military is fragile. This is seen as a sign of weakness and concern over the loyalty and combat readiness of his top commanders.
China's narrative of national success is contradicted by a significant diaspora of its citizens—from millionaires and creatives to ordinary workers. This flight of human capital seeking stability and freedom abroad signals a fundamental precariousness within the authoritarian system that pure economic growth cannot solve.
Whether you believe China is collapsing (due to demographics) or rising (powered by AI/robotics) depends entirely on your base assumptions about technology's ability to solve societal problems. The data can be interpreted to support either side, making your core belief system the deciding factor.
Xi Jinping's widespread purges, aimed at consolidating power and rooting out corruption, have hollowed out the People's Liberation Army's experienced leadership. This creates a significant capabilities gap and operational readiness problem, potentially jeopardizing the military's ability to meet Xi's own 2027 deadline for being capable of invading Taiwan.
China's inner circle, led by Xi Jinping, believes the U.S. is in terminal decline. They view American social and political paradoxes—like New York, the center of capitalism, electing a socialist—not as features of a complex democracy, but as evidence of a fracturing and decaying society.
The recent purges have wiped out an entire generational cohort of PLA leaders, not just individuals. This creates a significant succession crisis and leadership vacuum, forcing Xi to promote a new, untested generation of officers with whom he has no established trust.
The post-WWII global system was always fated to end in this decade. The root causes are long-term trends in trade and demographics, specifically aging populations running out of working-age adults. Trump is merely the political figure officiating this pre-destined formal break, not its architect.
Contrary to its national narrative, a unified China is a rare exception. Its 3,000-year history is dominated by 29 civilizational collapses where the central state fails, warlords rise, and the population plummets. Unity is not its natural state.