Founders often believe fundraising failure stems from a lack of connections. However, for early-stage consumer brands with low sales figures, the real barrier is insufficient traction data. VCs need proof of scalability, like a major distribution deal, before they will invest, regardless of the introduction.
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To determine if a startup will succeed, analyze the sequence of events. Did organic customer demand and behavior exist before the startup created its supply (product, messaging)? If the startup is trying to force motion with its supply, it's a sign of conjuring demand and a higher risk of failure.
The risk-return profile for a beverage brand mirrors a venture-style investment: it requires significant capital with a high failure rate, but the few successes yield massive, multi-billion dollar outcomes. This differs from food or beauty, which offer more predictable, traditional private equity returns.
Founders often try to fix their pricing or model when faced with inconsistent results. However, the real problem is usually a lack of volume. Sporadic outcomes are a symptom of not doing enough outreach. The solution isn't to tweak the model, but to 5x or 10x the promotional activity.
Investors like Stacy Brown-Philpot and Aileen Lee now expect founders to demonstrate a clear, rapid path to massive scale early on. The old assumption that the next funding round would solve for scalability is gone; proof is required upfront.
Before launching, assess a product's viability by the sheer number of potential distribution points. Manufacturing and logistics are solvable problems if the market access is vast. This reverses the typical product-first approach by prioritizing market penetration from day one.
Engaging with founders a month before Demo Day, even without a formal pitch, provides a vital baseline. Witnessing their spectacular progress over that month creates a powerful second data point on execution velocity, making the investment decision far easier and more informed.
Raising venture capital is often a network-driven game. If you don't already have a network of VCs or a clear path through an accelerator, your focus should not be on fundraising. Instead, dedicate your effort to building a product people want and gaining traction. VCs will find you once you have something compelling to show.
'Gifted TVPI' comes from consensus deals with pedigreed founders who easily raise follow-on capital. 'Earned TVPI' comes from non-consensus founders whose strong metrics eventually prove out the investment. A healthy early-stage portfolio requires a deliberate balance of both.
A core investment framework is to distinguish between 'pull' companies, where the market organically and virally demands the product, and 'push' companies that have to force their solution onto the market. The former indicates stronger product-market fit and a higher potential for efficient, scalable growth.
Founders mistakenly believe large funding rounds create market pull. Instead, raise minimally to survive until you find a 'wave' or 'dam.' Once demand is so strong you can't keep up with demo requests, then raise a large round to scale operations and capture the opportunity.