Prelude Growth Partners' framework avoids investments with product, category, or brand risk. Instead, they focus on opportunities where the primary uncertainty is execution, as they believe they can actively help mitigate that risk post-investment. This clarifies the type of risk growth capital should take on.

Instead of the traditional CPG model of acquiring distinct brands (like Coca-Cola owning Sprite), Breeze is building a centralized platform. Various "feel-good tonics" exist under the single, strong Breeze brand, similar to how Apple sells the iPhone, MacBook, and AirPods under one unified identity.

The most dangerous venture stage is the "breakout" middle ground ($500M-$2B valuations). This segment is flooded with capital, leading firms to write large checks into companies that may not have durable product-market fit. This creates a high risk of capital loss, as companies are capitalized as if they are already proven winners.

Entrepreneurs often chase trending markets. However, even a market in slight decline, like craft beer, can be enormous ($28 billion). Capturing a tiny fraction (e.g., 0.05%) of such a market can still result in a nine-figure business, making it a viable opportunity.

Former AB InBev CMO Chris Burgrave argues that brand building is a financial activity, not just a marketing one. A brand's ultimate purpose is to de-risk a business by creating repeatable, predictable future cash flows. This reframes the conversation from soft metrics to tangible financial outcomes like growth, profit, and risk reduction.

A common mistake in venture capital is investing too early based on founder pedigree or gut feel, which is akin to 'shooting in the dark'. A more disciplined private equity approach waits for companies to establish repeatable, business-driven key performance metrics before committing capital, reducing portfolio variance.

Blippar found that large, established companies wanted to fit new tech into old media silos (e.g., play a TV ad on a print ad). In contrast, challenger brands like Juice Burst were dream clients. Their risk appetite and hunger for an edge made them willing to experiment and create truly innovative use cases.

As an investor in companies like Liquid Death, Nick Tran prioritizes 'fun' projects where he can personally add value through brand building. His thesis is less about financial metrics and more about finding opportunities where a strong brand can create a competitive advantage, turning a commodity into a cultural icon.

The venture capital return model has shifted so dramatically that even some multi-billion-dollar exits are insufficient. This forces VCs to screen for 'immortal' founders capable of building $10B+ companies from inception, making traditionally solid businesses run by 'mortal founders' increasingly uninvestable by top funds.