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Aspiring autocrats follow a clear three-step playbook for controlling information. First, they attack the independent press. Second, they favor friendly outlets. Third, they establish their own state-run media. Trump is attempting to run all three plays simultaneously.
Trump's attempts to ban media outlets are self-defeating. His political power relies on constant media coverage, making attention, even negative, more valuable to him than control. Banning the press is like "holding your breath to punish the air."
Efforts to control or suppress legacy media outlets like CNN are increasingly futile. When established journalists are laid off or silenced, they migrate to creator platforms like Substack, taking their audiences with them. An attack on one large entity inadvertently strengthens a more resilient, decentralized media ecosystem.
Donald Trump's political style represents a shift beyond traditional autocracy. His primary aim isn't just to empower his party or allies, but to consolidate power entirely for himself, creating a personalist autocratic system where loyalty is to the individual, not an institution.
The primary danger to journalism has shifted. It's no longer leaders simply disliking coverage, but actively working to sow public doubt in the press as an institution. This strategic erosion of trust serves their own political interests at the country's expense, undermining a pillar of democracy.
Donald Trump's public denouncement of former allies like Tucker Carlson and Alex Jones is not random anger. It's a calculated political tactic to signal to his most loyal followers who is "in" and who is "out," effectively excommunicating dissenters and consolidating his control over the narrative.
Garry Kasparov argues that dictators don't hide their intentions; they state them plainly, like Hitler in *Mein Kampf*. The public's failure is not a lack of information but a failure to believe what is being said. This playbook applies directly to Donald Trump's rhetoric and actions, which should be taken seriously.
The old model of a censor red-penning articles is outdated. The new strategy, seen in Hungary and Turkey, involves the state helping political allies acquire newspapers and TV stations, thereby controlling the narrative at the ownership level.
When faced with sustained political attacks and threats, a media organization may strategically shift from cautious appeasement to aggressive, adversarial journalism. This pivot reflects a calculation that defending journalistic integrity is a better brand and survival strategy than attempting to placate a hostile political actor.
Trump is not an isolated phenomenon but a vessel for a broader, international right-wing movement. His talking points on immigration and 'special operations' mirror the language used by authoritarians like Viktor Orbán in Hungary and Vladimir Putin in Russia. This global playbook is tested in 'laboratories of autocracy' worldwide before being deployed in the U.S.
A dictator's attempts to consolidate power by purging potential rivals are counterproductive. This strategy creates a culture of fear where subordinates are too afraid to deliver bad news, isolating the leader from ground truth. This lack of accurate information increases the risk of catastrophic miscalculation and eventual downfall.