The belief that Luddites were simply anti-progress is a historical misreading. Technology created long-term societal wealth but caused immediate, unrecoverable job loss for them. AI will accelerate this dynamic, creating widespread disruption faster than workers can adapt.
Instead of a universal productivity boom, AI will eliminate repetitive white-collar jobs. This will shrink the consumer base, reducing overall demand and creating a powerful deflationary force, further entrenching a feudal economic structure with fewer 'lords' and more 'serfs.'
Widespread AI-driven job loss will reduce consumer spending. In response, businesses will be forced to cut costs further by accelerating AI adoption, which in turn leads to more job losses and even lower consumption, creating a vicious cycle.
Unlike previous technologies that augmented specific skills, AI could eventually outperform humans in all domains, including creative and emotional tasks. This suggests the historical pattern of technology creating more jobs than it destroys may not hold true.
The rapid displacement of jobs by AI will cause suffering beyond finances. It will trigger a profound crisis of meaning and identity for millions whose sense of self is tied to their profession, creating emotional distress and potential societal unrest.
For current AI valuations to be realized, AI must deliver unprecedented efficiency, likely causing mass job displacement. This would disrupt the consumer economy that supports these companies, creating a fundamental contradiction where the condition for success undermines the system itself.
Tech leaders cite Jevon's Paradox, suggesting AI efficiency will create more jobs. However, this historical model may not hold, as the speed of AI disruption outpaces society's ability to adapt, and demand for knowledge work isn't infinitely elastic.
AI's impact on labor will likely follow a deceptive curve: an initial boost in productivity as it augments human workers, followed by a crash as it masters their domains and replaces them entirely. This creates a false sense of security, delaying necessary policy responses.
While AI may eventually create a world of abundance where energy and labor are free, the transition will be violent. The unprecedented scale of job displacement, coupled with a societal loss of meaning, will likely lead to significant bloodshed and social upheaval before any utopian endpoint is reached.
Unlike past technological shifts where humans could learn new trades, AI is a "tractor for everything." It will automate a task and then move to automate the next available task faster than a human can reskill, making long-term job security increasingly precarious for cognitive labor.
Unlike gradual agricultural or industrial shifts, AI is displacing blue and white-collar jobs globally and simultaneously. This rapid, compressed timeframe leaves little room for adaptation, making societal unrest and violence highly probable without proactive planning.