Instead of a universal productivity boom, AI will eliminate repetitive white-collar jobs. This will shrink the consumer base, reducing overall demand and creating a powerful deflationary force, further entrenching a feudal economic structure with fewer 'lords' and more 'serfs.'
There are no scalable, productive investments (e.g., factories, real estate) offering attractive returns, as many physical assets trade below replacement cost. This surplus capital, with nowhere to go, is funneled into speculative bubbles like AI, creating a 'fake' economy.
True economic prosperity for the majority comes from wage growth, which leads to inflation and higher rates. These factors are poison for the long-duration assets and leveraged models that Wall Street depends on, creating a direct conflict of interest in policymaking.
The current system is locked in because policymakers fear the consequences of letting asset prices fall. A genuine shift will only occur when a political figure gains power with a mandate to help the middle class, even if it means 'suffering the consequences' of a market crash.
The U.S. has "asset feudalism" (propping up the S&P), while China has "factory feudalism" (subsidizing exports). All these systems concentrate wealth and power, leaving the bottom 90% of the population with little capacity to consume, which leads to global stagnation.
The modern market is driven by short-term incentives, with hedge funds and pod shops trading based on quarterly estimates. This creates volatility and mispricing. An investor who can withstand short-term underperformance and maintain a multi-year view can exploit these structural inefficiencies.
Increasing political instability, crime, and social decay in major Western cities are causing a 'flight capital' phenomenon among the wealthy. They are relocating to places perceived as safer and better managed, such as Dubai and Hong Kong, driving up asset prices in those locations.
U.S. economic policy is no longer aimed at broad prosperity but at ensuring the S&P 500 index continues to rise. This singular focus creates negative side effects, like suffering for the majority of the population who rely on wage growth rather than asset appreciation.