When facing ambiguity, the best strategy is not to wait for perfect information but to engage in "sense-making." This involves taking small, strategic actions, gathering data from them, and progressively building an understanding of the situation, rather than being paralyzed by analysis.

The best leaders act on incomplete information, understanding that 100% certainty is a myth that only exists in hindsight. The inability to decide amid ambiguity—choosing inaction—is a greater failure than making the wrong call.

A U.S. Bank survey reveals a "crisis of confidence" where individuals feel good about their personal financial habits but are paralyzed by external economic factors they can't control. This fear-induced "freezing" causes them to miss significant financial opportunities.

Instead of waiting for a complete picture, courageous leaders take small, experimental actions to 'sense make' their way through ambiguity. This process, observed in emergency responders, involves acting, observing cues, and rapidly iterating. It is about learning by doing, not planning everything perfectly in advance.

In a crisis, the public knows no one has all the answers. Attempting to project absolute certainty backfires. A more effective strategy is "confident humility": transparently sharing information gaps and explaining that plans will evolve as new data emerges, which builds credibility.

The most paralyzing decisions for a leader aren't clear-cut choices but dilemmas where every path is painful. Ben Horowitz's decision to take his company public with minimal revenue was a bad idea, but the alternative—bankruptcy—was worse. The key skill is choosing the 'slightly better' path in the abyss, despite the guaranteed negative feedback.

Afeyan distinguishes risk (known probabilities) from uncertainty (unknown probabilities). Since breakthrough innovation deals with the unknown, traditional risk/reward models fail. The correct strategy is not to mitigate risk but to pursue multiple, diverse options to navigate uncertainty.

The common trope of the risk-loving founder is a myth. A more accurate trait is a high tolerance for ambiguity and the ability to make decisions with incomplete information. This is about managing uncertainty strategically, not consistently making high-stakes bets that endanger the entire enterprise.

To prepare for low-probability, high-impact events, leaders should resist the immediate urge to create action plans. Instead, they must first creatively explore "good, bad, and ugly" scenarios without the pressure for an immediate, concrete solution. This exploration phase is crucial for resilience.