Similar to the dot-com era, the current AI investment cycle is expected to produce a high number of company failures alongside a few generational winners that create more value than ever before in venture capital history.

Frame AI as a fundamental productivity shift, like the personal computer, that will achieve total market saturation. It's not a speculative bubble but a new, permanent layer of the economy that will be integrated into every business, even a local taco truck.

The AI era is not an unprecedented bubble but the next phase in a recurring pattern where each new computing cycle (mainframe, PC, internet) is roughly 10 times larger than the last. This historical context suggests the current massive investment is proportional and we are still in the early innings.

The democratization of technology via AI shifts the entrepreneurial goalpost. Instead of focusing on creating a handful of billion-dollar "unicorns," the more impactful ambition is to empower millions of people to each build a million-dollar "donkey corn" business, truly broadening economic opportunity.

During a fundamental technology shift like the current AI wave, traditional market size analysis is pointless because new markets and behaviors are being created. Investors should de-emphasize TAM and instead bet on founders who have a clear, convicted vision for how the world will change.

Private Equity value creation has evolved. In the 2000s, it was driven by leverage; in the 2010s, by digital transformation. Today, AI serves as the new foundational "operating system" for growth, embedding intelligence into every process, contract, and customer touchpoint to drive returns.

Unlike prior tech cycles with a clear direction, the AI wave has a deep divide. SaaS vendors see AI enhancing existing applications, while venture capitalists bet that AI models will subsume and replace the entire SaaS application layer, creating massive disruption.

For venture capitalists investing in AI, the primary success indicator is massive Total Addressable Market (TAM) expansion. Traditional concerns like entry price become secondary when a company is fundamentally redefining its market size. Without this expansion, the investment is not worthwhile in the current AI landscape.

Consumer innovation arrives in predictable waves after major technological shifts. The browser created Amazon and eBay; mobile created Uber and Instagram. The current AI platform shift is creating the same conditions for a new, massive wave of consumer technology companies.