High-profile data acquisitions by AI labs, like OpenAI's with the NYT, may be less about the data's intrinsic value and more about securing positive press. A $20 million deal can be a cheap price for incredible media coverage, effectively a bribe for favorable narratives.

The $100B NVIDIA deal was more than equity; it was a strategic partnership enabling OpenAI to leverage NVIDIA’s financial strength to raise the massive debt needed for its infrastructure build-out. With the deal faltering, OpenAI's ability to fund its own hardware expansion independently is now in question.

In an environment of speculative AI deals, IRON's CEO Daniel Roberts emphasized that their $9.7B partnership with Microsoft is based on "binding contractual deal announcements" and "real revenue." This highlights a desire for credibility and differentiation from the "press release economy" where commitments can be less concrete.

Companies like Amazon are seeing massive market cap increases (e.g., $150B) from announcing large deals with OpenAI ($38B). This highlights a "press release economy" where the announcement itself creates immense value, even if the underlying financial commitments are not fully binding or guaranteed.

Nvidia's earnings call revealed its multi-billion dollar investment opportunities in OpenAI and Anthropic are non-binding letters of intent. This suggests the supposed "round-tripping" of capital in the AI ecosystem is built on optional, handshake-like deals, not guaranteed commitments, adding a layer of hidden risk.

The mind-boggling $1.4T in compute commitments likely isn't fully guaranteed. Such large contracts often include clauses for deferral, extension, or cancellation, giving OpenAI flexibility and making its actual financial risk much lower than public perception suggests.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pushed back against reports of a stalled $100B investment in OpenAI, clarifying it was never a firm commitment but rather an "invitation to invest up to $100 billion." This highlights how announcements in the "press release economy" can be misconstrued as binding deals, creating market confusion.

The high-stakes competition for AI dominance is so intense that investigative journalism can trigger immediate, massive corporate action. A report in The Information about OpenAI exploring Google's TPUs directly prompted NVIDIA's CEO to call OpenAI's CEO and strike a major investment deal to secure the business.

Announcements of huge, multi-year AI deals with vague terms like "up to X billion" should be seen as strategic options, not definite plans. In a market with unpredictable, explosive growth, companies pay a premium to secure rights to future capacity, which they may or may not fully utilize.