When the government guaranteed student loans, it removed the risk for colleges. This allowed them to hike tuition prices unchecked, knowing students had access to funding. The resulting flood of graduates has also made a college degree less of a differentiator in the job market.

An astonishing 97.3% of all private sector job gains in 2025 occurred within the healthcare industry. This extreme concentration highlights a narrow and potentially fragile labor market, with net job losses seen across the private sector when healthcare is excluded.

Recent job growth is overwhelmingly concentrated in healthcare services (83% of new NFP jobs) for an aging population. This, combined with an AI capex bubble, reveals a non-dynamic, 'K-shaped' economy where 'Main Street' stagnates and growth depends on narrow, unsustainable drivers.

A paradoxical market reality is that sectors with heavy government involvement, like healthcare and education, experience skyrocketing costs. In contrast, less-regulated, technology-driven sectors see prices consistently fall, suggesting a correlation between intervention and price inflation.

Runaway costs in education, housing, and healthcare stem from government intervention. When the government promises to provide a service (e.g., student loans), it becomes a massive "buy-only" force with no price sensitivity, eliminating natural market forces and causing costs to balloon.

Recent reports of rising unemployment are skewed by significant cuts in government jobs, which fell by 162,000 in two months. Over the same period, the private sector added 121,000 jobs, indicating underlying economic strength obscured by the headline numbers and public sector downsizing.

Apparent softening in the labor market, like rising African-American unemployment, isn't a cyclical downturn. Instead, it reflects idiosyncratic shocks, such as government spending reallocation and post-COVID hiring overhangs, masking underlying strong demand.

While headline GDP figures seem positive, the US economy shows signs of weakness. Growth is driven by high-income households drawing down savings, while the job market is stagnant outside of the healthcare sector. This creates a "K-shaped" dynamic where macro numbers obscure underlying fragility.

A government can artificially inflate its jobs numbers and GDP by going on a hiring spree for bureaucratic roles. This growth is illusory, or "phantom," as it's funded by printing money and doesn't contribute to the productive economy. It creates positive short-term metrics but fosters long-term inefficiency.