A key danger is that China might invade Taiwan not from a position of absolute confidence, but from the belief that its relative power is peaking. This echoes pre-WWI Germany's fear that waiting would only strengthen its adversaries, creating a 'now or never' strategic calculus.

Beijing's timeline for taking Taiwan is shrinking due to a demographic shift on the island. As younger Taiwanese feel increasingly less Chinese, leaders in Beijing fear that the window for any form of peaceful reunification is closing, raising the appeal of military options before a separate identity becomes permanent.

Chinese leadership believes time is not on its side regarding Taiwan. The growing sense of a distinct Taiwanese identity, especially among younger generations, creates pressure to act before a political 'reunification' becomes impossible, thus increasing the risk of military action.

A major risk in a Taiwan crisis is not just war but a pre-conflict financial shock. Investors, anticipating conflict, could "front run" the crisis by liquidating positions in TSMC and related tech, potentially causing a Lehman Brothers-style contagion before any military engagement begins.

Contrary to popular comparisons with Ukraine, Taiwan has 'zero chance' of defending itself independently. Its entire military posture is designed to hold out long enough for the United States to intervene, not to win a war of self-defense. This makes U.S. intervention speed the critical factor.

China's strategy for Taiwan likely mirrors its 2019 Hong Kong takeover. Instead of a direct military assault, Beijing will use political influence, espionage, and legislative changes to create administrative bridges, making any physical resistance illegal before troops ever move in.

Dan Sundheim identifies a potential conflict with China over Taiwan's semiconductor dominance as the single biggest tail risk to the global economy. Since Taiwan produces over 90% of advanced chips, a disruption to this fragile supply chain would be catastrophic, potentially triggering an economic crisis on the scale of the Great Depression.

A historian analogizes Taiwan's precarious situation to three pre-WWI flashpoints. It's a territorial claim (Alsace), a likely source of a great power crisis (Bosnia), and a strategic calculation for intervention by a global power (Belgium), making it exceptionally volatile.

A naval and air blockade, or "cordon sanitaire," presents a more dangerous and likely scenario than a direct cross-strait assault. This strategy would force an enormously difficult political and military decision upon the U.S. about whether to break the blockade and come to Taiwan's aid.