The pipeline for national security talent has shifted from government and military service to the private sector. Young innovators at startups and hyperscalers are developing critical technologies that directly contribute to national security, representing a new, decentralized form of public service.
A core, flawed assumption of the Afghanistan campaign was that Pakistan would eventually become an ally and deny safe haven to the Taliban. The U.S. never held Pakistan accountable for its role as a sanctuary and logistics hub, which fatally undermined the entire operation.
While the U.S. and China pursue hyperwar as a national strategy, its most rapid development is happening organically on the battlefield. Outnumbered forces like Ukraine are forced to innovate with autonomous systems out of necessity, driving a bottom-up adoption of hyperwar tactics.
The U.S. military is unparalleled in "decisive operations" (Phase 3) but consistently fails at long-term stabilization (Phase 4). To succeed, strategy should be reverse-engineered from the desired post-conflict state, rather than focusing solely on winning the initial battle.
The idea that airstrikes can decapitate the Iranian regime is a fallacy. The IRGC's influence is too deeply embedded within the society and its institutions. Killing leaders at the top will not remove this "rot," and the IRGC will simply re-constitute control, likely in an even more repressive form.
Instead of focusing on military losses like aircraft carriers, the most crucial deterrent to a U.S.-China conflict is the certainty of a generational global economic collapse. The devastating impact on both nations' economies and the world's is a far more compelling argument for peace.
Large, established think tanks are losing relevance due to political polarization and their slow pace. Smaller, agile think tanks with niche expertise are gaining influence by focusing on direct, person-to-person engagement with policymakers to create tangible impact, rather than just publishing books.
A naval and air blockade, or "cordon sanitaire," presents a more dangerous and likely scenario than a direct cross-strait assault. This strategy would force an enormously difficult political and military decision upon the U.S. about whether to break the blockade and come to Taiwan's aid.
Instead of relying solely on contemporary intelligence, General Allen studied early 20th-century writings of British diplomat Gertrude Bell to understand the "socioeconomic DNA" of Sunni tribes in Anbar. This historical, cultural-first approach was crucial to gaining their trust and shifting the conflict.
Xi Jinping's primary goal is CCP control. A failed invasion of Taiwan resulting in tens of thousands of casualties from a military composed almost entirely of only-children could trigger societal unrest, destabilizing the Communist Party's grip on power. This makes a high-casualty war a huge gamble.