The introduction of no-fault divorce laws was a legislative response to already-spiking divorce rates that were overwhelming the court system, rather than the cause of the increase. Data from states like California shows divorce rates were already rising before the law was changed and simply continued on the same trajectory afterward.
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Establishing causation for a complex societal issue requires more than a single data set. The best approach is to build a "collage of evidence." This involves finding natural experiments—like states that enacted a policy before a national ruling—to test the hypothesis under different conditions and strengthen the causal claim.
Stable marriage is increasingly correlated with high income. While 75% of men in the top income quintile marry, only 25% in the bottom quintile do. This reframes the decline of marriage not as a cultural choice, but as a clear marker of economic class division.
The decline in the US marriage rate is driven more by age at first marriage than by a rejection of the institution. While the percentage of people who will ever marry has only slightly decreased, the average time a person spends married in their lifetime is much lower because they are marrying later than ever before.
The state where a couple divorces is determined by where they lived for the six months before filing, not where the marriage took place. This allows for "forum shopping" for favorable state laws. However, a prenuptial agreement can specify a "choice of venue" to pre-determine which state's law will apply.
Contrary to the "get it out of your system" theory, a higher number of past sexual partners is a strong predictor of future relationship instability. For both men and women, it correlates with higher rates of divorce, cheating, and lower satisfaction in long-term relationships.
Contrary to the common belief that divorce rates are at an all-time high, they actually peaked around 1980 when roughly half of all marriages ended in divorce. Since that peak, the rate has been on a steady, multi-decade decline and is now considerably lower.
Demographers theorized that as men adapted to women's emancipation, relationship rates would re-stabilize. However, even in highly egalitarian Scandinavian countries, singlehood continues to rise. This suggests deeper factors are driving the trend, forcing experts to reconsider its causes and ultimate plateau.
The success of a long-term relationship is better predicted by how partners handle conflict and disagreement than by how much they enjoy good times together. People are more likely to break up due to poor conflict resolution than a lack of peak experiences.
Sociological data refutes the argument that welfare drives non-marital births. Rates of non-marital childbearing rose most sharply in the 1970s and 80s when the real value of welfare payments was already declining. Furthermore, rates did not fall after the major 1996 welfare reform, undermining the theory.
Despite social progress, a man's identity remains deeply tied to his economic status. When a woman in a relationship earns more than her male partner, the likelihood of divorce doubles, and his use of erectile dysfunction medication triples. This reveals a persistent and powerful link between masculinity, money, and relationship stability.
