The idea of an 'authoritarian bargain'—trading freedom for prosperity—is a myth. Autocrats don't need GDP growth; they need direct cash flow from sources like oil, hacking, or counterfeiting to fund repression and patronage. This allows them to maintain power even as their country's economy flounders.

To effectively govern, Hungary's new ruling party requires a two-thirds majority not just for its own agenda, but to systematically dismantle the legal obstacles and loyalist appointments Viktor Orban's regime embedded within the constitution over 16 years. These 'poison pills' were designed to thwart any successive government.

Hungarian citizens may tolerate systemic corruption when the economy is strong. However, EU financial sanctions have slowed Hungary's growth, causing economic pain that fuels public anger. This anger over corruption becomes a potent political weapon for the opposition, making Viktor Orbán's regime vulnerable.

Orbán pioneered a method to turn a democracy into an autocracy not through violence, but through complex legal, economic, and media control. This model serves as an inspiration for nationalist movements globally, including the MAGA movement in the U.S., making Hungary a critical test case.

The most potent threat to an authoritarian regime comes not from visible dissidents, who are often neutralized, but from patriotic loyalists within the system. These insiders believe the current leadership is corrupt and harming the country, making their patriotism a powerful tool that can be turned against the regime.

Business leaders may see short-term benefits in aligning with an aspiring autocrat. However, this alliance is temporary. In Hungary, 15 years after Viktor Orbán took power, only 23% of the country's 50 wealthiest people remained on the list, as the regime moved to consolidate power by bankrupting or eliminating rivals.

Contrary to typical political assumptions, Hungary's election was not decided by economic performance. Instead, voter sentiment shifted to concerns over the country's drift towards Russia and away from the European Union. The desire to maintain a European identity proved to be a more powerful motivator than 'pocketbook' issues.

Beyond headline-grabbing scandals, the most insidious impact of a kleptocratic administration is its refusal to enforce existing laws, from financial regulations to anti-corruption acts. This quiet dismantling of the legal framework fosters a culture of impunity where bad actors thrive, ultimately harming ordinary people and destabilizing the entire system.

Figures like Donald Trump don't create populist movements; they rise by capitalizing on pre-existing societal problems like economic despair. Focusing on removing the leader ignores the root causes that allowed them to gain power, ensuring another similar figure will eventually emerge.