The idea of an 'authoritarian bargain'—trading freedom for prosperity—is a myth. Autocrats don't need GDP growth; they need direct cash flow from sources like oil, hacking, or counterfeiting to fund repression and patronage. This allows them to maintain power even as their country's economy flounders.

The appeal of a populist leader lies in their rejection of traditional political norms. When the electorate feels betrayed by the established "political class," they gravitate toward figures whose rhetoric is a deliberate and stark contrast, signaling they are an outsider.

Orbán pioneered a method to turn a democracy into an autocracy not through violence, but through complex legal, economic, and media control. This model serves as an inspiration for nationalist movements globally, including the MAGA movement in the U.S., making Hungary a critical test case.

The most potent threat to an authoritarian regime comes not from visible dissidents, who are often neutralized, but from patriotic loyalists within the system. These insiders believe the current leadership is corrupt and harming the country, making their patriotism a powerful tool that can be turned against the regime.

Business leaders may see short-term benefits in aligning with an aspiring autocrat. However, this alliance is temporary. In Hungary, 15 years after Viktor Orbán took power, only 23% of the country's 50 wealthiest people remained on the list, as the regime moved to consolidate power by bankrupting or eliminating rivals.

The inability for young people to afford assets like housing creates massive inequality and fear. This economic desperation makes them susceptible to populist leaders who redirect their anger towards political opponents, ultimately sparking violence.

Jane Fonda argues that defeating an authoritarian regime requires weakening its "pillars of support" like finance, military, and art. This is achieved through strategic noncompliance—strikes, boycotts, and mass actions that hit the economy—rather than traditional protests, which are less effective against entrenched power.

Economic uncertainty and anxiety are the root causes of political violence. When governments devalue currency through inflation and amass huge debts, they create the stressful conditions that history shows consistently lead to civil unrest.

Authoritarian power hinges on 'control over life chances'—dictating access to jobs, housing, and education. A robust private sector creates alternative paths for citizens, diminishing the state's leverage. Fostering private enterprise is therefore a subtle but effective tool for eroding an autocrat's grip on society.