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A primary driver of the Leave vote was to 'take back control' of immigration. Ironically, the post-Brexit Conservative government, led by Boris Johnson, presided over a massive surge in non-EU immigration. In 2023, over a million non-EU people arrived, alienating the very voters the campaign had targeted.

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Analysis of OECD data reveals that, contrary to a "brain drain" narrative, British emigration rose before Brexit as citizens used their last chance for free movement. After 2021, outflows experienced a "cliff edge" drop, demonstrating that Brexit had a restrictive, rather than motivating, effect on Britons leaving the country.

Even conservative governments that promise to reduce immigration often increase it once in office. They face the economic reality of needing cheap labor to keep consumer prices low, especially when dealing with currency inflation and low domestic birth rates.

Public opposition to immigration in Britain stems from a perceived lack of control at the borders, epitomized by asylum seekers in boats, rather than animosity toward immigrants who have already arrived and are seen as deserving of equal rights.

High immigration allows politicians to report positive overall GDP growth, creating an illusion of prosperity. However, this masks the reality that per-capita GDP has been stagnant or declining, meaning the average citizen is getting poorer. It is framed as a political tool to obscure a failing economy.

The promise of a deregulated 'Singapore-on-Thames' post-Brexit has failed to materialize. Many EU regulations Brexiteers targeted, like the working time directive, remain UK law. This reveals that the true barriers to deregulation were not Brussels, but powerful domestic vested interests that UK politicians are unwilling to challenge.

In a counter-intuitive argument, the UK's Home Secretary, herself the daughter of immigrants, posits that restricting immigration is necessary to protect social harmony. The theory is that a perceived lack of control fuels public panic and racism, so tightening controls will calm tensions and ultimately shore up multiculturalism.

Despite public polling indicating a desire for less immigration, the Labour government's move to suppress it did not result in political gains. This suggests voters who prioritize the issue were not Labour supporters to begin with, and the policy failed to attract new ones.

Despite claiming growth is its top mission, the UK government is pursuing anti-growth measures. These include making permanent residency harder to obtain, which limits skilled migration, and passing employment bills that increase the difficulty and cost of hiring, directly undermining business expansion.

Contrary to the goal of forging a distinct identity, Britain has seen several social and political trends converge with European norms since 2016. This includes falling birth rates, young adults living at home longer, and stricter employment and renters' rights—mirroring a European social model rather than the deregulated, US-style economy some Brexiteers had envisioned.

The political establishment misinterpreted the Brexit vote as an economic decision. For many voters, however, it was a cultural referendum. They were willing to accept potential economic decline in exchange for reclaiming national sovereignty, controlling borders, and restoring a sense of national identity.