Aim to make decisions when you have between 40% and 70% of the necessary information. Striving for more than 70% leads to slow, inefficient decision-making, allowing competitors to get ahead. The key is making timely, good-enough decisions, not perfect ones.
When facing ambiguity, the best strategy is not to wait for perfect information but to engage in "sense-making." This involves taking small, strategic actions, gathering data from them, and progressively building an understanding of the situation, rather than being paralyzed by analysis.
The best leaders act on incomplete information, understanding that 100% certainty is a myth that only exists in hindsight. The inability to decide amid ambiguity—choosing inaction—is a greater failure than making the wrong call.
Waiting for perfect data leads to paralysis. A core founder skill is making hard decisions with incomplete information. This 'founder gut' isn't innate; it's developed by studying the thought processes—not just the outcomes—of experienced entrepreneurs through masterminds, advisors, or podcasts.
For big, uncertain choices like schooling, use a formal process: Frame the question, Fact-find without deciding, set a time for a Final decision, and schedule a Follow-up. This structure prevents endless deliberation by acknowledging you can't be 100% certain but can still move forward confidently and revisit the choice later.
When faced with imperfect choices, treat the decision like a standardized test question: gather the best available information and choose the option you believe is the *most* correct, even if it's not perfect. This mindset accepts ambiguity and focuses on making the best possible choice in the moment.
Agency leaders often delay decisions for fear of being wrong, creating significant opportunity costs and mental distraction. This paralysis is more damaging than the risk of an incorrect choice. Any decision is better than indecision because it provides momentum and learning, a lesson especially critical for small or solo-led agencies.
To avoid analysis paralysis in major life decisions like marriage or faith, adopt the Marine Corps' leadership principle: gather 80% of the necessary information, then make a choice and commit. Waiting for 100% certainty is a trap that paralyzes action and postpones happiness.
Inspired by Jeff Bezos's '70% rule,' modern creative leaders must be comfortable making decisions before having all the facts. In today's fast-paced media landscape, waiting for a perfect, 100% complete brief is a relic of the past. Agility requires acting on intuition and accepting that some details will be worked out along the way.
The key to success is high-volume decision-making with a slight edge, not perfection. Like a casino, being right just over half the time on decisions with measurable outcomes guarantees long-term success. This mindset encourages action over analysis paralysis and accepts failure as part of the process.
Categorize decisions by reversibility. 'Hats' are easily reversible (move fast). 'Haircuts' are semi-permanent (live with them for a bit). 'Tattoos' are irreversible (think carefully). Most business decisions are hats or haircuts, but we treat them like tattoos, wasting time.