Private equity and venture capital funds create an illusion of stability by avoiding daily mark-to-market pricing. This "laundering of volatility" is a core reason companies stay private longer. It reveals a key, if artificial, benefit of private markets that new technologies like tokenization could disrupt.

The term 'private equity' is now insufficient. The M&A market's capital base has expanded to include sovereign wealth funds and large, tech-generated family offices that invest directly or co-invest like traditional PE firms. This diversification creates a larger, more resilient pool of capital for deals.

The traditional IPO exit is being replaced by a perpetual secondary market for elite private companies. This new paradigm provides liquidity for investors and employees without the high costs and regulatory burdens of going public. This shift fundamentally alters the venture capital lifecycle, enabling longer private holding periods.

The mid-market offers the best risk-reward by targeting profitable, regional leaders. This segment is less competitive and process-driven, allowing for better valuations and sourcing compared to the overcrowded large-cap space or the hit-or-miss venture capital scene.

In the current market, companies prioritize liquidity and public market access over protecting previous private valuations. A lower IPO price is no longer seen as a failure but as a necessary market correction to move forward and ensure survival.

PE firms are struggling to sell assets acquired in 2020-21, causing distributions to plummet from 30% to 10% annually. This cash crunch prevents investors from re-upping into new funds, shrinking the pool of capital and further depressing the PE-to-PE exit market, trapping investor money.

Contrary to the popular VC idea that IPO pops are 'free money' left on the table, they actually serve as a crucial risk premium for public market investors. Down-rounds like Navan's prove that buyers need the upside from successful IPOs to compensate for the very real risk of losing money on others.

An IPO is not a final exit but the start of a public "marriage" with new responsibilities. This mindset shifts focus from the event itself to rigorously preparing the company for the long-term demands of public markets, for instance through simulated earnings calls and disciplined share allocation to long-term investors.

When evaluating a deal, sophisticated LPs look beyond diversifying customers and suppliers. They analyze the number of viable exit channels. A company whose only realistic exit path is an IPO faces significant hold period risk if public markets turn, making exit diversification a key resiliency metric.