Ultra-late-stage companies like Ramp and Stripe represent a new category: "private as public." They could be public but choose not to be. Investors should expect returns similar to mid-cap public stocks (e.g., 30-40% YoY), not the 2-3x multiples of traditional venture rounds. The asset class is different, so the return profile must be too.

Historically, private equity was pursued for its potential outperformance (alpha). Today, with shrinking public markets, its main value is providing diversification and access to a growing universe of private companies that are no longer available on public exchanges. This makes it a core portfolio completion tool.

The traditional IPO exit is being replaced by a perpetual secondary market for elite private companies. This new paradigm provides liquidity for investors and employees without the high costs and regulatory burdens of going public. This shift fundamentally alters the venture capital lifecycle, enabling longer private holding periods.

Venture-backed private companies represent a massive, $5 trillion market cap, exceeding half the value of the 'Magnificent Seven' public tech stocks. This scale signifies that private markets are now a mature, institutional asset class, not a small corner of finance.

The private equity market is following the hedge fund industry's maturation curve. Just as hedge funds saw a consolidation around large platforms and niche specialists, a "shakeout" is coming for undifferentiated, mid-market private equity firms that lack a unique edge or sufficient scale.

Top-tier VC firms like Andreessen Horowitz are evolving beyond traditional venture investing. They are mirroring the playbook of private equity giants like Blackstone by acquiring other asset managers, expanding into new verticals like wealth management, and preparing to go public, prioritizing AUM growth.

Major technological shifts create new industries in unpredictable ways. The spreadsheet automated manual financial modeling, revealing massive inefficiencies in companies. This enabled private equity firms to acquire businesses, streamline operations using this new tool, and extract value, effectively birthing the modern PE industry.

The era of generating returns through leverage and multiple expansion is over. Future success in PE will come from driving revenue growth, entering at lower multiples, and adding operational expertise, particularly in the fragmented middle market where these opportunities are more prevalent.

The venture capital paradigm has inverted. Historically, private companies traded at an "illiquidity discount" to their public counterparts. Now, for elite companies, there is an "access premium" where investors pay more for private shares due to scarcity and hype. This makes staying private longer more attractive.