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Junior investors often seek external validation. A better approach is to study successful investors to build a strong internal instinct for what greatness looks like. Once developed, you must trust this instinct and back your non-consensus ideas with confidence, as seeking consensus or borrowing conviction is a critical mistake in venture.
The most successful venture investors share two key traits: they originate investments from a first-principles or contrarian standpoint, and they possess the conviction to concentrate significant capital into their winning portfolio companies as they emerge.
Waiting for perfect data leads to paralysis. A core founder skill is making hard decisions with incomplete information. This 'founder gut' isn't innate; it's developed by studying the thought processes—not just the outcomes—of experienced entrepreneurs through masterminds, advisors, or podcasts.
The key to emulating professional investors isn't copying their trades but understanding their underlying strategies. Ackman uses concentration, Buffett waits for fear-driven discounts, and Wood bets on long-term innovation. Individual investors should focus on developing their own repeatable framework rather than simply following the moves of others.
To achieve above-average investment returns, one cannot simply follow the crowd. True alpha comes from contrarian thinking—making investments that conventional wisdom deems wrong. Rubenstein notes the primary barrier is psychological: overcoming the innate human desire to be liked and the fear of being told you're 'stupid' by your peers.
In VC, where being wrong is the norm (80%+ of the time), the most critical trait is not righteousness but deep curiosity. This learning-first mindset is what uncovers non-obvious opportunities and allows investors to see future market shifts before they become mainstream, according to True Ventures' Jon Callaghan.
Copying a guru's strategy often fails. Their outperformance might be a temporary style factor, not just skill. More importantly, their unique circle of competence is not transferable. Focus on becoming a better version of yourself, not a second-rate version of someone else.
According to Ken Griffin, legendary investors aren't just right more often. Their key trait is having deep clarity on their specific competitive advantage and the conviction to bet heavily on it. Equally important is the discipline to unemotionally cut losses when wrong and simply move on.
To achieve exceptional results, you must believe something and take action that the consensus thinks is wrong. This requires a non-consensual, often stubborn conviction. This path is high-risk because it means you are either a visionary who is early or you are simply an idiot.
Investors can spend years reading theory, but the marginal returns on information diminish without practical application. Shifting from passive learning to active company analysis is crucial for overcoming "imposter syndrome" and building real-world conviction.
Instead of seeking feedback broadly, prioritize 'believability-weighted' input from a community of vetted experts. Knowing the track record, specific expertise, and conviction levels of those offering advice allows you to filter signal from noise and make more informed investment decisions.