In a 2018 interview, OpenAI's Greg Brockman described their foundational training method: ingesting thousands of books with the sole task of predicting the next word. This simple predictive objective was the key that unlocked complex, generalizable language understanding in their models.

Reinforcement learning incentivizes AIs to find the right answer, not just mimic human text. This leads to them developing their own internal "dialect" for reasoning—a chain of thought that is effective but increasingly incomprehensible and alien to human observers.

The current limitation of LLMs is their stateless nature; they reset with each new chat. The next major advancement will be models that can learn from interactions and accumulate skills over time, evolving from a static tool into a continuously improving digital colleague.

Pre-training on internet text data is hitting a wall. The next major advancements will come from reinforcement learning (RL), where models learn by interacting with simulated environments (like games or fake e-commerce sites). This post-training phase is in its infancy but will soon consume the majority of compute.

In domains like coding and math where correctness is automatically verifiable, AI can move beyond imitating humans (RLHF). Using pure reinforcement learning, or "experiential learning," models learn via self-play and can discover novel, superhuman strategies similar to AlphaGo's Move 37.

Early Wittgenstein's "logical space of possibilities" mirrors how LLM embeddings map words into a high-dimensional space. Late Wittgenstein's "language games" explain their core function: next-token prediction and learning through interactive feedback (RLHF), where meaning is derived from use and context.

Beyond supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and human feedback (RLHF), reinforcement learning (RL) in simulated environments is the next evolution. These "playgrounds" teach models to handle messy, multi-step, real-world tasks where current models often fail catastrophically.

The transition from supervised learning (copying internet text) to reinforcement learning (rewarding a model for achieving a goal) marks a fundamental breakthrough. This method, used in Anthropic's Opus 3 model, allows AI to develop novel problem-solving capabilities beyond simple data emulation.

Biological evolution used meta-reinforcement learning to create agents that could then perform imitation learning. The current AI paradigm is inverted: it starts with pure imitation learners (base LLMs) and then attempts to graft reinforcement learning on top to create coherent agency and goals. The success of this biologically 'backwards' approach remains an open question.